I'm happy to put my last penny in a bet that Facebook, in its current international form, has ZERO chance of entering China. Also, even if it succeeds in entering China, there is NO WAY it can beat the incumbents based on type and quality of content.
If one understands the culture, history and fears of China, he will understand why I say so. I'm not going to explain why here.
Facebook has 845 million users around the globe, but it is essentially invisible in the world’s most populous country, where Facebook is blocked. But have a close read at Facebook’s IPO filing today. It sure sounds like Facebook has ambitions for China.
Facebook mentioned China in several points in its IPO document: (The bold text was added by Deal Journal.)
* “We continue to evaluate entering China. However, this market has substantial legal and regulatory complexities that have prevented our entry into China to date.”
* “China is a large potential market for Facebook, but users are generally restricted from accessing Facebook from China. We do not know if we will be able to find an approach to managing content and information that will be acceptable to us and to the Chinese government.”
* “We would also face competition from companies in China such as Renren, Sina, and Tencent in the event that we are able to access the market in China in the future.”
This IPO filing isn’t the first time Facebook has showed a longing to be involved in China. In 2010, Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said he was hoping to figure out the “right partnerships that we would need to do in China to succeed on our terms,” as Deal Journal colleague Loretta Chao reported today.
