Friday, June 17, 2011

(BN) Greenspan Says Greece Default ‘Almost Certain,’ May Trigger U.S. Recession

If you believe someone who craps from the mouth. 


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Greenspan Tells Charlie Rose Default by Greece 'Almost Certain'

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman, said a default by Greece is "almost certain" and could help drive the U.S. economy into recession.

"The problem you have is that it's extremely unlikely the political system will work" in a way that solves Greece's crisis, Greenspan, 85, said in an interview today with Charlie Rose in New York. "The chances of Greece not defaulting are very small."

Greek government bonds slumped, pushing the yield on the two-year note above 30 percent for the first time, as Prime Minister George Papandreou's failure to win support for more austerity fueled speculation the European country will fail to meet its obligations. More than 20,000 people protested in Athens this week against wage reductions and tax increases, with police using tear gas on crowds and strikes paralyzing ports, banks, hospitals and state-run companies.

The chances of Greece defaulting are "so high that you almost have to say there's no way out," said Greenspan, who ran the central bank from 1987 to 2006. That may leave some U.S. banks "up against the wall."

Greece's debt crisis has the potential to push the U.S. into another recession, Greenspan said. Without the Greek issue, "the probability is quite low" of a U.S. recession, he said.

"There's no momentum in the system that suggests to me that we are about to go into a double-dip," Greenspan said.

Economic data released today show confidence in the expansion eroding among Americans and businesses, as unemployment remains above 9 percent.

U.S. Debt Limit

The U.S. recovery is being hindered by apprehension among businesses over the long-term outlook, and there's nothing more for Fed policy makers to do, Greenspan said.

U.S. lawmakers are wrangling over spending cuts and budget reforms as they seek an agreement to increase the $14.3 trillion debt limit before Aug. 2, the date on which the Treasury Department said it will have exhausted its borrowing authority.

The U.S. debt issue is becoming "horrendously dangerous," said Greenspan, who added he doubts lawmakers have another year or two to solve it.

After leaving the Fed, the former chairman founded the consulting firm Greenspan Associates and became a consultant or adviser to Deutsche Bank AG, Pacific Investment Management Co. and Paulson & Co., a hedge-fund firm that profited from the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.

Greenspan, appointed Fed chairman by Republican President Ronald Reagan, was once described as "the greatest central banker who ever lived" by economist Alan Blinder, the central bank's former vice chairman.

He has since been blamed for contributing to the U.S. financial crisis by keeping interest rates low for too long and failing to regulate the mortgage market, according to critics including Allan Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, and members of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

To contact the reporter on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at vchen1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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Monday, June 13, 2011

(BN) Fischer’s Age Is Hurdle in Last-Minute Quest to Be IMF Managing Director


He's the man, but in this world, it is power and influence, not the right person, that rules. 



Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Fischer's Age, Nationality Are Hurdles in Bid for IMF Post

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer, who helped the International Monetary Fund end crises in Mexico, Russia and Southeast Asia, faces the dual hurdles of age and nationality in his quest for the lender's top job.

Fischer, 67, the IMF's first deputy managing director from 1994-2001, joins French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde and Mexican central bank chief Agustin Carstens in the race to succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned last month after he was charged with attempted rape, as managing director. Strauss- Kahn has pleaded not guilty.

"An exceptional and unplanned opportunity has crossed my path, one that may never again present itself, to run for the head of the IMF," Fischer said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. "After much deliberation, I have decided to pursue it, despite the fact that it is a complicated process and despite the possible obstacles."

Israel's central bank said in a statement that the IMF will have to decide whether to amend its by-laws, which stipulate that its managing director be less than 65 years at the time of selection, or reject his candidacy. The fund's members would also have to end an informal agreement under which the head is always a European, while an American heads the World Bank.

Seen as American

Fischer is getting a late start in a race that has seen Lagarde lock up support among European Union nations. While the U.S., the fund's single biggest shareholder, hasn't announced backing for anyone, favoring a non-European could mean relinquishing control of the World Bank -- an outcome that members of Congress who decide on funding for development banks have said they oppose.

Fischer holds both U.S. and Israeli citizenship. He was born in an area of northern Rhodesia that is today part of Zambia and holds a Ph.D in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

He "would be a fine candidate, but despite his African upbringing and Israeli experience, Fischer is seen first as a U.S. citizen because of his tenure as deputy managing director at the fund," Bessma Momani, a professor at the University of Waterloo in Canada who specializes in the IMF, said by e-mail.

Fischer earned his undergraduate and master's degrees at the London School of Economics. He then won a scholarship from MIT, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he studied under future Nobel laureate economists Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow. He later joined the faculty at MIT, serving as the thesis adviser to Ben S. Bernanke, now the Federal Reserve chairman.

'Beyond All Else'

Lagarde has benefited from the failure of emerging markets to coalesce around a candidate from their own ranks after vowing to end a six-decade European lock on the position. She has tried to turn attention away from her nationality by focusing on her gender and her role in European efforts to head off a Greek sovereign-debt default.

Lagarde has secured Egypt's backing for her candidacy to head the IMF, the Arab country's state-run Middle East News Agency reported today, citing Foreign Minister Nabil El-Arabi.

Lagarde said today Bahrain supports her candidacy to run the International Monetary Fund. She said other Mideast nations also have expressed support for her bid, though she did not identify them by name, in speaking at a Cairo press conference today.

The fund has said it plans to make a choice by the end of the month.

Integrity

"Fischer has already proven that when there are important challenges, he can meet them," Jacob Frenkel, chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and a former Bank of Israel governor said in an interview with Army Radio today. "His integrity is above and beyond all else."

Fischer, who emigrated from the U.S. to Israel in 2005 to take up the Bank of Israel governorship, described the top IMF position as a "terrific" job in a May 25 interview. He said the euro-region's debt crisis doesn't make it necessary for the fund to elect a European candidate. The IMF approved a record $91.7 billion in emergency loans last year and provides a third of bailout packages in Europe.

In August 2009, Fischer became the first central bank governor to reverse course in response to signs of a financial recovery when he raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point. He was given a second five-year term last year and was named central bank governor of the year for 2010 by Euromoney magazine in October.

Buying Dollars

In 2008, Fischer -- in an effort to save Israel's export- driven economy -- ordered the Bank of Israel to buy dollars to drive down the value of the shekel. Since March 2008, he has more than doubled foreign currency reserves to $76.8 billion.

The purchase program helped weaken the shekel against the dollar by 22 percent during two quarters of economic contraction, assisting companies such as Petah Tikva, Israel- based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., the world's biggest maker of generic drugs. The currency weakened 0.7 percent against the dollar to 3.4080 on June 10.

Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz said that Fischer's chances of getting the job "aren't great" due to the age requirement.

'Win-Win'

"It's a win-win situation for us," Steinitz said in an interview with Army Radio. "If he wins, it brings honor to the State of Israel, and he will also be working on our behalf on an international level. And we would also welcome his remaining with us."

Israel's 10-year government bond yields climbed to the highest level in more than two weeks on bets inflation accelerated in May. The yield on the benchmark Mimshal Shiklit note due January 2020 rose one basis point to 5.1 percent at the 4:30 p.m. close in Tel Aviv.

The TA-25 benchmark slid 1.25 percent today to close at 1204.19, the lowest since September.

"Everyone is sitting on the fence and waiting for something to happen. It may be related to the fact that his chances of getting the job don't look huge right now. They aren't taking it seriously yet," Uriel Goren, head of the international clients desk at DS Securities & Investments, said by phone.

Israel recovered from the global recession faster than many other developed economies, with growth of 4.7 percent in the first quarter of last year and 7.6 percent in the fourth. The economy is likely to expand 5.2 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2012, the central bank said in a June 1 forecast.

Northern Rhodesia

Fischer's father, Philip, migrated in 1926 to Northern Rhodesia, modern-day Zambia, and ran a general store in a small village. Fischer's mother, Ann, was the daughter of Lithuanian immigrants who had moved to South Africa. The couple raised Stanley and his younger brother in Northern Rhodesia.

Fischer's parents moved to Southern Rhodesia -- now Zimbabwe -- when he was 13, and he completed high school there. In the last year of high school, he switched his specialization to economics from science. Fischer also joined Habonim, a Zionist youth group, along with Rhoda Keet, his future wife, with whom he now has three sons.

In the early 1960s, Fischer spent six months on a kibbutz on Israel's Mediterranean coast, where he combined learning Hebrew with manual labor. He now conducts his official business in Hebrew with an accent that divulges his upbringing in southern Africa.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alisa Odenheimer in Jerusalem at aodenheimer@bloomberg.net Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net .

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden in Dubai at barden@bloomberg.net .

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Sunday, June 5, 2011

The story BCG offered me $16,000 not to tell

From what I have seen, its the same for McKinsey.


The city was strange and the society unnerving, but what disturbed me the most about my experience was my job as a business consultant.

By Keith Yost
STAFF COLUMNIST
April 9, 2010
The city was strange and the society was unnerving, but what disturbed me most about my Dubai experience was my job as a business consultant for the Boston Consulting Group.

I really had no idea what to expect, going in. In my mind, consulting was about answering business questions through analysis. It was supposed to be Excel sheets and models, sifting through data to discover profit and loss, and helping clients make decisions that would add the most value for themselves, and by extension, society.

It was worrisome to enter a new job without any guarantee that I would be qualified. I assumed BCG would train me, and that as it had been with MIT, intelligence and hard work would prove sufficient. Still, I wondered what I would do if for some reason it turned out that I couldn’t get my head around the analysis? In hindsight, analytical skills should have been the least of my worries.

Stretching reality

The first clue that my mental picture of consulting was off came with “training” in Munich. I expected instruction in Excel programming, data analysis, and business theory. Instead, Munich turned out to be little more than a week long social outing with other recently matriculated consultants and analysts within the BCG’s European branches. We donned name tags, shook hands, and drank often. Classes were fluffy, and mostly consisted of discussion of high-level, almost philosophical topics. I got along well — as both an American and a member of the Dubai office, I was doubly foreign and therefore double the curiosity.

After a pleasant week of pseudo-partying, I returned to Dubai and was assigned to writing case proposals. In the consulting business, it is standard practice for clients to write requests for proposals, describing the question they would like answered. The consulting firm in turn writes a case proposal: We will answer A by having Consultant B do X, Y, and Z. A well written case proposal promises much, but is deliberately vague about what concrete things the consultants will produce.

Case proposals were despised by the rank and file — one had a dozen bosses, unclear objectives, and virtually no coordination with co-workers. But in one sense, the proposals were good practice for real case work. Both involved stretching reality to fit whatever was assumed the client desired.

Despite having no work or research experience outside of MIT, I was regularly advertised to clients as an expert with seemingly years of topical experience relevant to the case. We were so good at rephrasing our credentials that even I was surprised to find in each of my cases, even my very first case, that I was the most senior consultant on the team.

I quickly found out why so little had been invested in developing my Excel-craft. Analytical skills were overrated, for the simple reason that clients usually didn’t know why they had hired us. They sent us vague requests for proposal, we returned vague case proposals, and by the time we were hired, no one was the wiser as to why exactly we were there.

I got the feeling that our clients were simply trying to mimic successful businesses, and that as consultants, our earnings came from having the luck of being included in an elaborate cargo-cult ritual. In any case it fell to us to decide for ourselves what question we had been hired to answer, and as a matter of convenience, we elected to answer questions that we had already answered in the course of previous cases — no sense in doing new work when old work will do. The toolkit I brought with me from MIT was absolute overkill in this environment. Most of my day was spent thinking up and writing PowerPoint slides. Sometimes, I didn’t even need to write them — we had a service in India that could put together pretty good copy if you provided them with a sketch and some instructions.

Burning out

I worked hard at MIT. I routinely took seven to ten classes per semester and filled whatever hours were left in the day with part-time jobs and tutoring. It was a fairly stupid way of going about my education, and I missed out on many of the learning opportunities that MIT offers outside of classes. I don’t recommend what I did to anyone. But as stupid as carrying double course loads was, it had one advantage: After all the long hours I put into MIT, I believed I was invincible. If MIT couldn’t burn me out, nothing else ever could.

It took roughly three months before BCG disproved my “burn-out proof” theory. Putting together PowerPoint slides was easy, the hours were lenient, and the fifth day of every week usually consisting of a leisurely day away from the client site. By all accounts, I should have been coasting through my tasks.

What I learned is that burning out isn’t just about work load, it’s about work load being greater than the motivation to do work. It was relatively easy to drag myself to classes when I thought I was working for my own betterment. It was hard to sit at a laptop and crank out slides when all I seemed to be accomplishing was the transfer of wealth from my client to my company.

I’m a free marketeer. I believe that voluntary exchange is not just a good method of incentivizing people to provide their labor and talents to society, but a robust moral system — goods and services represent tangible benefit to people, market prices represent the true value of goods in society, and wages represent the value that a worker provides to others. Absent negative externalities or monopoly effects, a man receives from the free market what he gives to it, his material worth is a running tally of the net benefit that he has provided to his fellow man. A high income is not only justified, but there is nobility to it.

My moral system is organized around a utilitarian principle of greatest good for the greatest number — that which adds value cannot be wrong. It did not bother me therefore when I was handed consulting reports that had been stolen from our competitors. If the information in those reports would help us improve our client, then who could say we were doing wrong? Like downloading MP3s, it was a victimless crime.

What I could not get my head around was having to force-fit analysis to a conclusion. In one case, the question I was tasked with solving had a clear and unambiguous answer: By my estimate, the client’s plan of action had a net present discounted value of negative one billion dollars. Even after accounting for some degree of error in my reckoning, I could still be sure that theirs was a losing proposition. But the client did not want analysis that contradicted their own, and my manager told me plainly that it was not our place to question what the client wanted.

In theory, it was their money to lose. If they wanted a consulting report that parroted back their pre-determined conclusion, who was I to complain? I did not have any right to dictate that their money be spent differently. And yet, to not speak out was wrong. To destroy a billion dollars is to destroy an almost unimaginable amount of human well-being. Spent carefully on anti-malarial bed nets and medicine, one billion dollars could save a million lives. This was a crime, and failing to try and stop it would be as bad as committing it myself. And if I could not prevent it, then what reason was I being paid such a high salary? How could I justify my income if not by prevailing in situations such as these?

Sit down, shut up

Early on, before I began case work, one manager I befriended gave me some advice. To survive, he told me, I needed to remember The Ratio. 50 percent of the job is nodding your head at whatever is being said. 20 percent is honest work and intelligent thinking. The remaining 30 percent is having the courage to speak up, but the wisdom to shut up when you are saying something that your manager does not want to hear.

I spoke up once. And when it became clear that I would be committing career suicide to press on, I shut up.

With a diligent enough effort, one can morally justify nearly anything. It was clear that the client was going to go forward with their decision regardless of how I acted. How could I be responsible for a foregone conclusion? And if I had no power to change things, then why shouldn’t I take the course of action that lets me keep my job? Who would it benefit for me to give up my paycheck? With my salary, I could make large and regular contributions to Red Cross or Doctors Without Borders — without it I would just be another unemployed bum.

But there is a large difference between telling yourself a story and believing it. Ultimately, the core reason I stayed silent wasn’t altruistic, but selfish. At my salary level, and with my expected advancement path, I could comfortably retire in my thirties. That would mean nearly a full lifetime at my disposal, a solid forty years to find true love and raise a family without distraction. It was the opportunity to travel, to achieve great things, to self-actualize. It was the prospect of living a life free of want and need. Who was I kidding? I wasn’t going to donate half my salary to Red Cross. I was going to deposit it into an index fund and speed off as soon as I was sure there was enough gas in the car.

The conscience is a pesky thing. It was no consolation that I had gotten the moral calculus to work out in my favor. I should have been the most relaxed man on the planet, and yet every day I went back to my hotel room and spent most of my time nervously pacing. I couldn’t sleep at night. I’d fill up a bathtub and scream into it. I couldn’t get over the feeling that this was not how I was supposed to spend my life.

Staying silent was agonizing. Nominally, my job was to provide advice and aid in my client’s decision-making process. In practice, my job consisted of sitting quietly and resisting the urge to dissent. Each day was like a punishment from Greek mythology; with every meeting my liver would grow anew to be eaten again by eagles.

I was reminded of the Milgram experiment. I wanted to quit. I didn’t want to have any hand in this, I didn’t want the responsibility of being the destroyer. But the man in the lab coat was telling me that the experiment must continue. Burnout soon followed.

It wasn’t just that I lost all motivation for my job; it was also that it is much harder than one would expect to do unsound analysis. There is an interesting kabuki dance to be done when crafting figures to fit a conclusion. The conclusion may be wrong, but you still need to make it believable. You still need numbers to fill out your PowerPoint slides, and the numbers need to have enough internal consistency not to throw up red flags at a casual glance. Honest analysis, even when it has weak areas, is easy to defend. If the numbers look fishy, there’s an explanation — you didn’t have direct data on such and such and had to use estimates from another report, or made a reasonable assumption somewhere. But when the numbers actually are fishy, and there’s no underlying logic to defend, you can’t have any rough areas for others to poke at. And when you know everything is fishy, you can’t tell what will look fishy to someone who hasn’t seen any numbers before.

This leads to what I like to call, “Find me a rock” problems. The classic “find me a rock” story is as follows: A manager goes to his engineer one day and asks for a rock. “A rock?” asks the engineer. “Yes, a rock. That isn’t going to be a problem, is it?” replies the manager. The engineer laughs and tells the manager he’ll go pick one up during his lunch break and it will be no problem. After lunch, the manager visits the engineer again and the engineer shows him the rock. The manager looks at it for a moment before telling the engineer, “No, that one won’t work at all. I need a rock.”

“Find me a rock” problems sound dead simple, but in actuality have requirements that are poorly stated or unknown. You never know what you’re looking for; you only know that you’ll know it when you see it.

When you disconnect analysis from reality, it would seem like you are freeing yourself up to do your job any way you like. In actuality, you are exchanging one set of clear objectives and rules for another that is complex and ill-defined. At one point my manager said to me, “Change the numbers, but don’t change the conclusion.” Of course, there’s no trouble in changing the numbers — it’s not as if there was much of a basis for this set of numbers over another — but change them how, and to what? Who knows? Find me a rock.

I don’t know if I’ll ever have kids. Still, when I find myself in a moral quandary, I like to think it through by imagining how I would explain the situation to my future, hypothetical children. What would I say? How would they react? Could I justify my actions as having been in their best interest?

I wasn’t sure at the time, but having had enough free time of late to ponder such questions, I think I’ve come to the conclusion that having a father who can pay for a top-notch education outweighs the disadvantage of being raised by a hypocrite. Sticking with the job for the sake of a paycheck passes the children test.

I was not surprised the day I lost my job. The writing was on the wall. BCG’s management might have been releasing reports claiming countries like Dubai would be islands of stability in the world’s rough financial seas, but to the ground troops, it was obvious the economy was not doing well. From the very beginning of my employment, I hadn’t met a single employee who planned on staying with the company — all of them were scrambling for lifeboats, trying to land cushy jobs with cash-stuffed clients or find their way back to their home countries.

What did surprise me was the offer BCG made to me as I was on the way out the door. In exchange for me signing an agreement, BCG would give me the rough equivalent of $16,000 in UAE dirhams. Much of it looked boilerplate, like any common compromise agreement used in Europe — in return for some money, I would stipulate that I hadn’t been discriminated against on the basis of race or gender, etc.

But the rest was very clearly a non-disclosure agreement, and it made me uncomfortable. I signed a non-disclosure agreement when I first took the job, but that only covered BCG’s intellectual property and client identities, things that seemed entirely reasonable to protect. This agreement went much further. Not only did it bar me from making any disparaging comments about BCG or my work experience, but I wouldn’t even be allowed to reveal the existence of the non-disclosure agreement itself. The implication was clear: I could either be a cheerleader for BCG or stay silent, but anything else would bring swift legal retribution. When I asked to have the non-disclosure clauses removed, I was told that the agreement was a standard offer to employees, and that its terms were non-negotiable.

As hard as it was to decide whether or not to stay at my job, it was easy to pass up the hush money. Mistake or not, my future hypothetical children deserved to hear their father’s story, and $16,000 did not seem like a lot of money in the grand scheme of things. After rejecting the offer, I enjoyed a full night’s rest.

This is the third in a four-part series on the author’s experiences as a consultant in Dubai.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

From TODAY on iPad: Japan underestimated tsunami threat: IAEA


After the event has occurred and damage done, someone needs to assign blame and responsibility. Who better than UN? If Japan could underestimate, which country would not? 

This is classic UN spouting crap.


From TODAY on iPad: Japan underestimated tsunami threat: IAEA

TOKYO - United Nations inspectors have faulted Japan for underestimating the threat of a devastating tsunami on its crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant (picture) but praised its overall response to the crisis as exemplary.

The preliminary report by a team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also said the tsunami hazard was underestimated at several other nuclear facilities...

URL: Japan underestimated tsunami threat: IAEA

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