Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Apple agrees to China factory checks as shares soar


I had the good fortune to meet with an ex Foxconn worker XiaoLv on this issue.

XiaoLv worked at Foxconn for 1 year in Shenzhen in 2010. She said security was very tight and when entering the factory space, they couldn't bring in any metal more than coin size, or the detectors would ring. This meant there is no way anyone can snap a video or photo inside the factory. The environment in the factory is dense and heavy, there is continuous noise and everyone is pretty much a robot. After work, she would return to her squatters where more than 100 people lived in a room. There is no washing or drying facilities, so all they could do is to hang their undies and socks over their beds. It room stinks because of clothes that have not been washed for ages. Most workers were depressed, because whatever they made was so little they would spend it in an hour if they left the factory. As a result, most of them never left the factory, but laboured on to make as much as they could. The workers could leave Foxconn anytime they wanted, however, their salary would be withheld, so given their salary was so low, most could not afford to leave. XiaoLv left when one of the girls committed suicide. She said her time at Foxconn was a nightmare, nevertheless, Foxconn is not the only factory.



Apple agrees to China factory checks as shares soar

BY:MURAD AHMED
From:The Times
February 15, 2012 12:00AM


AS Apple's shares broke through $US500 ($468) for the first time yesterday, the company allowed a group that campaigns against sweatshops to check conditions of its Chinese factory workers.

Apple said it had invited the Fair Labour Association to inspect plants in China, where products such as iPhones and iPads are made. The visit will include a factory in Shenzhen run by Foxconn, one of Apple's biggest manufacturers.

An explosion at a Foxconn plant in Chengdu, southwest China, claimed four lives last year, and in 2010 there was a spate of suicides by Shenzhen workers. "We believe people everywhere have the right to a safe and fair work environment, which is why we've asked the FLA to independently assess our largest suppliers," said Apple chief executive Tim Cook.

The invitation emerged as Apple's market value rose to $US460 billion, after record sales of iPhones and iPads. The company listed its biggest suppliers, and reports on factory inspections, in a move intended to combat criticism of work conditions after revelations of brutal practices and dangerous systems.


Checks showed employees worked excessive overtime, sometimes seven days a week, and many were under-age. Others had been killed in explosions or injured handling chemicals.

Foxconn claimed yesterday all workers were given an hour's lunch break and access to medical care, and said only 5 per cent had to stand to work. "Foxconn is not perfect, but we have made tremendous progress."

Monday, February 13, 2012

(BN) Iran Sanctions Tightening as OSG to Frontline Halt Shipping Nation’s Crude

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Iran Sanctions Tighten as OSG to Frontline Halt Crude Cargo

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Sanctions on Iran are tightening after Overseas Shipholding Group, Frontline Ltd. and owners controlling more than 100 supertankers said they would stop loading cargoes from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' second-largest producer.

OSG, based in New York, said Feb. 10 that the pool of 45 supertankers from seven owners in which its carriers trade will no longer go to Iran. Four OSG-owned ships, managed by Tankers International LLC, called at the country's biggest crude-export terminal in the past year, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Nova Tankers A/S and Frontline, with a combined 93 vessels, said Feb. 9 and 11 they won't ship Iranian crude.

Previous efforts to curb Iran's oil income and stop it from developing nuclear weapons failed because the structure of the shipping industry means vessels are often managed by companies outside the U.S. or European Union. An EU embargo on Iranian oil agreed to Jan. 23 extended the ban to ship insurance. With about 95 percent of the tanker fleet insured under rules governed by European law, there are fewer vessels able to load in Iran.

"It's the insurance that's completed the ban on trading with Iran," said Per Mansson, a shipbroker for 31 years and the managing director of Norocean Stockholm AB, which handles tanker charters. "Last summer, many countries started to be a little bit tougher, but the insurance is the real trigger."

Kharg Island

OSG's Overseas Rosalyn, which can carry about 2 million barrels, arrived at Kharg Island on Jan. 27 and departed the next day, tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. It left about 16 feet deeper in the water, an indication it loaded cargo. The vessel is managed by Tankers International, which has its head office in Cyprus. OSG complies with all U.S. and European laws and its head office in New York doesn't manage charters, OSG Chief Executive Officer Morten Arntzen said in an e-mail Jan. 30.

Tankers International told owners the pool's vessels will no longer sail to Iran after changes to EU regulations, Arntzen said in a Feb. 10 e-mail. Insurers are no longer able to cover vessels trading in the Persian Gulf nation, he wrote.

Ship owners sometimes group their vessels to coordinate charters and improve earnings. The Tankers International pool operates 45 very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, from OSG and six other companies, including Antwerp-based Euronav NV and St. Helier, Channel Islands-based DHT Holdings Inc.

Nova Tankers

"All the owners in the pool have stated that they will not trade Iran because of the consequences," DHT CEO Svein Moxnes Harfjeld said by phone Feb. 10. "DHT is complying with all relevant regulations and sanctions and following recent developments our vessels have been instructed not to trade Iran."

Frontline companies including Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline Ltd. and Frontline 2012 won't ship Iranian crude, Jens Martin Jensen, chief executive officer of Frontline Management AS, said by e-mail and phone on Feb. 11 and 12. Frontline operates 43 VLCCs, according to its website.

Nova Tankers, the Copenhagen-based operator of a pool of ships, including vessels owned by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., won't load Iranian crude because of European sanctions, Managing Director Morten Pilnov said by phone from Singapore on Feb. 9. The pool will have about 50 vessels by the end of this year, according to data on its website.

Nippon Yusen K.K., the second-largest owner of VLCCs, won't carry Iranian oil if it means ships aren't insured, Yuji Isoda, an investor relations manager for the Tokyo-based company, said Feb. 9. The company doesn't yet know how its insurers will handle the EU sanctions, he said by phone.

Tighter Restrictions

U.S. and EU leaders are trying to tighten restrictions on business with Iran, which produced 3.55 million barrels of crude a day in January, 11 percent of OPEC's total, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil sales earned Iran $73 billion in 2010, accounting for about 50 percent of government revenue and 80 percent of exports, the U.S. Energy Department estimates.

The United Nations has imposed four sets of sanctions on Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency said in November the country has studied how to make an atomic bomb. The government in Tehran says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes and that documents held by the IAEA purporting to show designs and tests of weapon components are fakes.

Iran has threatened to block shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which about 20 percent of the world's globally traded oil passes. Crude futures in New York advanced 32 percent to $99.66 a barrel since Oct. 4.

Senate Bill

More trade with Iran may be blocked if a U.S. Senate Banking Committee bill approved Feb. 2 becomes law, making U.S. companies responsible for the actions of their foreign units when dealing with Iran. A spokesman for committee chairman Tim Johnson, a South Dakota Democrat, declined to comment.

While the Japanese government said last month it would curb imports from Iran, India's Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said Jan. 17 his country won't. China, the Persian Gulf country's largest customer, needs the oil for development, Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun told reporters Jan. 11.

Founded in 1948, OSG has 111 vessels and 3,500 employees, according to its website. Its biggest shareholders include the family of board members Oudi and Ariel Recanati, who control about 10 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Oudi Recanati is an Israeli citizen and Ariel Recanati a U.S. citizen, according to a Sept. 6 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Charles A. Fribourg sits on the board of OSG and Continental Grain Co., the data show.

Marshall Islands

Shares of OSG, which has 14 supertankers, fell 70 percent in the past year as a glut of vessels drove down transport rates. The company will report a loss of $178.6 million this year, down from $204.4 million in 2011, according to the median of five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Three other OSG vessels from the Tankers International pool called at Kharg Island in the past year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They fly the Marshall Islands flag, which means they are registered there for regulatory purposes, according to data on the website of International Registries Inc. Almost 9 percent of the tanker fleet is flagged in the Marshall Islands, behind Panama and Liberia, according to data compiled by London- based Clarkson Plc, the world's biggest shipbroker.

"Ship owners and brokers are now seeing a tightening of sanctions," said Bob Knight, the managing director of tankers at Clarkson in London. "This is a sign that sanctions are starting to bite."

To contact the reporter on this story: Isaac Arnsdorf in London at iarnsdorf@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net

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Sunday, February 12, 2012

Western capitalism has much to learn from Asia


Not surprisingly, Asian academics now spouting a whole lot of rubbish.

Of course when you are in a cycle where Asia is up and Europe and US are down, a dean sitting in Singapore talks like a know-all, and everyone listens. 

I disagree with almost every single point he raised.



Mahbubani: Western capitalism has much to learn from Asia


February 8th, 2012


Econintersect: Kishore Mahbubani is dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, and author of ‘The New Asian Hemisphere’. He has an Op Ed in the Financial Times (7 February 2012) which discusses where western capitalism has gone wrong and how Asia is getting capitalism right. Dr. Mahbubani is very specific in his analysis and the entire article should be read to appreciate the full flow of his analysis and arguments. In this news post we will simply list the factors identified without the analysis.



Follow up:The errors of the west that Mahbubani has identified are:


Capitalism came to be regarded as an ideological good rather than as a pragmatic tool to improve human welfare.
The role of regulation and supervision was forgotten.
It was forgotten that for capitalism to survive all classes must benefit from it.
The west came to believe that “markets know best” and that implementation of government economic policy was an ideological heresy.
The populace in the west was never properly informed that retraining would be necessary to participate in a global economy.

There are further readings on comparisons between the east and the west in the weekly columns by Frank Li at GEI Opinion (link below).

Sources:
Western Capitalism has much to learn from Asia (Kishore Mahbubani, Financial Times, 7 February 2012)
GEI Opinion articles by Frank Li

Friday, February 10, 2012

(BN) Steve Jobs FBI File Notes Past Drug Use, Tendency to ‘Distort Reality


Of course he distorted reality, but I think he genuinely believed he could change reality.

It is like one of those Think like and become a Billionaire books. A billion people try, 1 person succeeds, and another person writes a book about it.



Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.
Jobs FBI File Notes Drug Use, Tendency to 'Distort Reality'
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Bureau of Investigation released a decades-old file it kept on Steve Jobs, the deceased Apple Inc. co-founder, after a background check and bomb threat against the executive.
"Several individuals questioned Mr. Jobs' honesty stating that Mr. Jobs will twist the truth and distort reality in order to achieve his goals," according to the materials released today by the FBI.
The FBI interviewed Jobs and people who knew him as part of a background check for a possible appointment by former President George H. W. Bush. Interviews were conducted with unnamed associates of Jobs to judge his character, drug use and potential prejudices, according to the file.
Several people commented "concerning past drug use on the part of Mr. Jobs," according to the file.
FBI records can be made public after a person's death and were released by the law-enforcement agency following a Freedom of Information Act Request. Jobs died in October after a long battle with a rare form of cancer. Apple, the maker of the iPhone, iPad, iPod and Mac, is now the world's most valuable company.
Representatives of Cupertino, California-based Apple and the FBI in Washington didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net
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(BN) Hedge Fund Loss at Merchant Snaps Seven Gains in ‘Ugly Year’: Commodities


Down 30% is a lot, yet nothing. If his strategy was good, he should press on, but I guess he had lost confidence in his own strategy.


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.
Hedge Fund Snaps Seven Annual Gains in 'Ugly Year': Commodities
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Coleman is suspending a three-decade trading career to focus on risk after a year in which the Merchant Commodity Fund he co-founded lost 30 percent and its assets contracted twice as much.
Assets fell to about $550 million last month, from $1.56 billion at the end of 2010, said Singapore-based Coleman, who gave up trading to become chief risk officer. The biggest losing bet was in sugar before a 10-month decline ended with winning wagers in oil, fuels, sugar and soybeans, he said. The assets of the hedge fund, started in June 2004 with $10 million, are now traded mostly by co-founder Doug King.
Merchant's 2011 slump, which still left its initial investors with a return of 236 percent, illustrates last year's swings in raw materials. While the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities gained 2.1 percent for all of last year, it rose as much as 21 percent, before falling 25 percent and then rallying 13 percent. The average fund tracked by the Newedge Commodity Trading Index lost 4.2 percent last year, beating Merchant for only the second time in seven years.
"The problem was that we were wrong," said Coleman, the 51-year-old son of a plumber from Lancashire in northwest England who graduated from Oxford University in 1982. "The cause of our loss came from a few changes in supply and demand, nothing dramatic. Normally we have seven wins to three losses. Last year, we were down to four wins to six losses."
Palm-Oil Yields
The fund, whose worst performance before 2011 was a 5 percent gain in its first seven months of trading, was wrong twice on sugar last year, Coleman said. They were bullish at end-2010 before prices dropped in February and March and they became bearish before the commodity rallied in June and July, he said. A wager on rising vegetable-oil prices also soured as yields in Malaysia, the second-biggest producer of palm oil after Indonesia, unexpectedly strengthened.
Traders for oil, coal and freight have been added and the fund is increasing its "core investments there," said London- based King. Still, "we remain totally opportunity-driven and if the opportunity is in agriculture we will still weight our investments in that sector," he said. The agricultural markets are "un-crowded and friendless" after three to four years of leaving investors "constantly disappointed," he said. Merchant is bullish on soybeans and vegetable oils.
Monthly losses peaked at more than 10 percent in June and no gains were made until November, according to a fund document. Leverage, the notional value of all long and short positions divided by assets, fell as low as 0.4 by September, from 3.6 in April. The ratio rose as high as 8.6 in 2005. Merchant lost a further 4.2 percent last month.
Price Swings
"It was an ugly, ugly year," said 45-year-old King, who relocated to London and got married in October after 14 years in Switzerland. "Our volatility has been heightened over the past three or four years and our goal is to cut that volatility."
The price swings also hurt other traders. Cargill Inc., the largest closely held U.S. company, posted an 88 percent drop in profit in the three months through November and said sugar was one of the causes. Noble Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-based commodity supplier part-owned by China's sovereign wealth fund, reported its first quarterly loss in about 14 years in November.
Both Coleman and King were employees of Minneapolis-based Cargill, the former as the global head of rubber trading who joined the company after graduation, and the latter as the leader of the petroleum-trading team.
Commodity Assets
"I'm very confident the managers will be able to turn it around," said Stephane Pizzo, a fund manager and founder of Singapore-based Lotus Peak Capital Pte, who has put money into Merchant since 2006. "The fund performance was still within what one could expect based on Merchant's 20 percent annual volatility target."
Gains peaked at 47 percent in 2006, with 37 percent advances in 2005 and 2007. Assets under management reached a record $2.54 billion in February 2008.
Global commodity investments climbed $19 billion to $399 billion last year, according to Barclays Capital, which measures money in exchange-traded products, index swaps and medium-term notes. Inflows fell to $15 billion from $67 billion in 2010, the weakest since 2002, the bank estimates.
"Markets are a game; it's a human construct with human rules," said Coleman, a former rugby player and a director of St. Helens Rugby Football Club in Lancashire. Commodity traders are often sports players because "you can handle stress, you have experience in adversity because if you play sports, you have had both defeat and victory."
Closing Office
After the management changes, Coleman oversees the size of trades and asset allocation, describing his role as "defense" and King as "offence." He gave up trading his own portfolio as of Jan. 1 and King remains chief investment officer.
King will continue to trade most of the assets, with the balance handled by other employees. They include Chan Bhima, formerly of JPMorgan Chase & Co., who trades coal and freight. King's move means the fund is closing its Zug office and transferring three people to London, he said.
Merchant still sees opportunities in agriculture. Drought in South America is damaging oilseed production and reducing stockpiles, King said. Soybeans may trade as high as $15 a bushel this year, from $12.3275 now, and soybean oil may climb to 60 cents a pound from 52.65 cents, he said.
Brent, the benchmark for more than half of the world's crude, may trade from $100 to $120 a barrel, King said. The commodity traded at $117.56 today. Energy accounted for 53 percent of the fund's investments last year.
Merchant is more likely to focus on relative-value trades this year than outright bets on the price of a single commodity, Coleman said. Gasoline could move to a "reasonable premium to heating oil in the summer" from a discount now, said King.
"If you have been in a business for a long time, you have a mechanism of living through what is unpleasant," Coleman said. "If you get beat 5-0 last week, you're not so keen to play next week. That's why it's important to stop compounding negative as soon as possible."
To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in Singapore at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net
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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Crippling Sanctions on Iran Are Best Way to Prevent Israeli Strike


agreed. The iranian people must choose their fate.


Crippling Sanctions on Iran Are Best Way to Prevent Israeli Strike
Evelyn Gordon | @evelyng123411.22.2011 - 2:30 PM


You have to give French President Nicolas Sarkozy credit: So far, he’s the only international leader to demandthe world put its money where its mouth is on Iran. For weeks, world leaders have been lining up to say how disastrous an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be; indeed, as Jonathan noted last week, the Obama administration frequently seems more interested in preventing Israeli military action than in preventing Iran from getting the bomb. Yet Sarkozy is the first to take that opposition to its logical conclusion: If the world actually wants to prevent an Israeli strike, it needs to demonstrate that Iran’s nuclear program can be stopped without military action. And that means imposing truly crippling sanctions on Tehran.

The new sanctions announced by the U.S., Britain and Canada yesterday are all welcome; all will genuinely increase the pressure on Iran. But they fall well short of what Sarkozy proposed: for “the United States, Japan and Canada and other willing countries to take the decision to immediately freeze the assets of the Iranian Central Bank [and] stop purchases of Iranian oil.”



The U.S., for instance, declared Iran as “a jurisdiction of ‘primary money laundering concern’ under section 311 of the USA Patriot Act,” which will make it harder for Western financial institutions to do business with Iran. But it did not move directly against Iran’s Central Bank, which is what would really be necessary to shut down Iran’s financial lifeline. Britain ordered its financial institutions to stop doing business with Iran, but has reportedly decided against targeting Iran’s oil trade.

It could be that most Western countries genuinely consider a nuclear Iran preferable to the financial pain crippling sanctions would impose on them: Targeting Iran’s oil trade, for instance, would almost certainly raise the price of oil. But the consequences of an Israeli military strike could easily prove just as bad, and might well be worse, given that Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate not just against Israel, but also against the U.S. and other Western countries. And because most Israelis believe a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, Israel isn’t likely to deem a nuclear Iran preferable to the financial and military consequences of a strike.

Thus, if world leaders really believe what they say about the negative consequences of Israeli military action, crippling sanctions, however financially painful, are the lesser of two evils. Sarkozy appears to have grasped that. The question now is whether anyone else will follow suit.

Monday, February 6, 2012

(BN) China’s Economy May Face ‘Rough’ Landing, Singapore’s Lee Says


Wish people like him could shut up than to speculate. 


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

China's Economy May Face 'Rough' Landing, Singapore's Lee Says

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy may be headed for a "rough landing," Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said.

"They've built a lot of infrastructure. They have built a lot of capacity in many industries, autos, some of the electronics industries," Lee said, according to a transcript of an interview airing today on CNN's" Fareed Zakaria GPS" program. "There may be a rough landing, but they will get through it."

A Chinese government report on Feb. 1 showed that export orders fell last month even as manufacturing expanded. The stronger manufacturing boosted concern that that the world's second-largest economy will decelerate further as the government refrains from loosening monetary policy to tame inflation and curb property prices.

China's economy expanded 10.4 percent annually in the past 10 years, five times the pace of the U.S., as the government boosted spending on roads and bridges and manufacturers exported everything from toys to socks.

China's economy grew at a 9.2 percent rate in 2011 while expansion will slow to 8.5 percent this year, according to economists' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Asked about China's role in Asia, Lee said "every superpower or big country has to be looked on with a certain careful respect by others not quite so huge."

He said the U.S presence in the Pacific that followed World War II is "still welcomed and is still considered benign. And that's really a good example for the Chinese to seek to emulate."

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Engleman in Washington at eengleman1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Ann Hughey at ahughey@bloomberg.net

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Saturday, February 4, 2012

Israel to strike Iran within months: US


A Israel strike on Iran is inevitable, and is the only way the country can continue to peacefully exist. On the other hand, Iran is an aggressive and large country with a deep and proud history. 

In the end, this action, and its consequences, will just be kicking the can down the road. There will be no bridging the gap and animosity in the Middle East, and all parties need to leave the table with their pride intact.

I see only one way - the Iranians themselves must make their choice, and sacrifice blood if necessary for the sake of their children. No outside party can do that.



WASHINGTON - US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta now believes Israel is poised to attack Iran in the first half of this year to stop Tehran’s nuclear programme, according to media reports.

The prospect of war in the Middle East emerged after Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported Thursday that the Defence Secretary saw “a strong likelihood” that Israel would strike Iran as early as April. Ignatius appears to have written the report after a background briefing in Brussels with Mr Panetta.

Panetta was asked to confirm whether this was his view, and he said he was not disputing it, but then added: “What I think and what I view, I consider that to be an area that belongs to me and nobody else.” He noted the US has ‘indicated our concerns.’

Panetta’s comments come after Israel issued a harsh warning that time was running out to stop Iran’s ambitious nuclear programme. Iran has all along maintained that its nuclear programme is geared to peaceful purposes, not weapon-oriented.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said at a news conference that the country should confront Iran to keep its nuclear programme from continuing to grow and claimed that foreign governments would support such an attack.

And Yoram Cohen, head of Israeli security agency Shin Bet, added fuel to the fire, insisting Iranian agents were attempting to attack Israeli targets in retaliation for the assassination of four Iranian nuclear scientists since November 2010.

Reacting to the Israeli threats, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised to help any nation or group that wanted to confront Israel and vowed to continue its nuclear programme.

He called Israel a “cancerous tumour that should be cut and will be cut,” blasting Western-backed oil sanctions and warning the US will be defeated if Washington decides to use military force to halt the country’s programme.

“The advancement of the Islamic Revolution has never stopped as we have been on the right track,” Khamenei said.

Agencies add: Panetta emphasised to reporters that US troops in Afghanistan would remain ‘combat-ready’ as the United States winds down its longest war. But he said the troops would largely shift to a train-and-assist role as Afghan forces take responsibility for security before an end-2014 deadline for full Afghan control.

“I want to be clear: Even as Afghans assume the security lead, Isaf will continue to have to be fully combat-ready and we will engage in combat operations as necessary,” Panetta said.

While US officials insisted there was no contradiction in the US message, comments by a senior NATO official underscored the potential for confusion.

“He (Panetta) said the combat role will come to an end but he also said combat will continue. And that’s exactly what I’m saying,” the Nato official said.

Panetta, speaking in Brussels, said there was a general consensus among members of Nato’s International Security Assistance Force that Afghans should take the security lead at some point in 2013, but that Isaf forces would have to continue participating in combat operations in some areas as necessary.

“Between now and the end of 2014, we’re prepared to engage in combat, whether we’re in the lead or the Afghans are,” a US defense official said on condition of anonymity.

In Kabul, a senior Afghan security official said his government had not been informed of Panetta’s announcement and said it “throws out the whole transition plan.”

Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told a news briefing Nato would move gradually to a support role, but combat operations would continue throughout the transition period and the alliance was committed to a principle of “in together, out together.”

Analysis: A sobering look at Facebook


Why are we talking about a valuation of 100bn for Facebook? Its quite simple really. The last round of investors got in in Jan 2011 at a valuation of 50bn, the shares were peddled by Goldman. There is no way it can go IPO below 50bn, so people throw up 100bn, which will double the money invested for those Jan 2011 investors.

The reality, for me, is that suckers scooped up the stock in Jan 2011. However, if it does go IPO, then they may come out winners - the sucker is the one holding to the stock having bought it at 100bn, and valuations go back to fundamentals at 12bn (12x PE) - the valuation of Apple now.



Analysis: A sobering look at Facebook

BY SARAH MCBRIDE AND POORNIMA GUPTA, REUTERSFEBRUARY 3, 2012 11:07 AM


Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Facebook, delivers a keynote address at the company's annual conference in San Francisco, California in this 2008 file photo. The social network filed an initial public offering prospectus Feb. 1 with an eye toward raising $5 billion.
Photograph by: Kimberly White, Reuters

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - It's the year's hottest initial public offering, but some wealth managers find themselves having a hard time recommending Facebook to their clients.



The world's biggest social network is expected to seek a $75 billion to $100 billion valuation in its IPO, the most anticipated stock offering from Silicon Valley since Google Inc went public in 2004.



At Granite Investment Advisors in New Hampshire, Chief Investment Officer Scott Schermerhorn has already been fielding queries from clients eager to get in on the action.



"We had some clients call and once we step them through the numbers, they sober up," he said. "The valuation is 100 times earnings in a stock market that is trading at 12."



"At the end of the day, if you have a small amount of money that you are in a position to lose a chunk of it and you want to speculate on Facebook, go ahead," he added. "But don't use money that you really need to save to do it. I would put it in Microsoft, which is dirt cheap right now."



To be sure, most technology analysts would argue that Facebook's growth potential far exceeds that of Microsoft Corp, whose stock has largely traded between $20 and $30 in the past decade. It is taking its first steps toward content streaming for instance, and has yet to make a serious overseas thrust.



And a $100 billion valuation for Facebook at the top end - while huge in absolute terms - is not that out of whack in Silicon Valley IPO tradition. Facebook is seeking a multiple of up to 27 times annual revenue, or up to 100 times earnings.



Apple Inc - today, the world's most valuable technology corporation - went public at a valuation of just $1.19 billion in 1980, equivalent to 25 times revenue and 102 times earnings. Google - to which Facebook is most often measured against in terms of potential - was valued at $23 billion at the time of its 2004 debut, or 218 times earnings.



But the sheer size of Facebook's valuation means that it will have to become the world's first $700 billion company if it is to replicate the gain in Google's stock.

"At these valuations, investors really need to set aside emotion...and invest with their heads," said Edward Reinhart, managing partner at Capital Advisors Wealth Management, who owns Facebook shares bought on private markets two years ago.



Reinhart, who advises clients on retirement planning, warned that hype building up ahead of Facebook's IPO could mean "dangerous waters for the retail investor."



INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS STOCK UP



Facebook, led by 27-year-old Mark Zuckerberg, on Wednesday filed its IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission, seeking to raise $5 billion.



The anticipation surrounding the company and its growth potential recalls the hoopla that accompanied Apple's, Google's, and Amazon.com Inc's stock debuts. All three companies have done the near-impossible -- lived up to the hype.



There are many who believe Facebook will do the same, pointing to its 843 million users and the fact that the company is much bigger and more profitable than other recent Internet debuts, such as the loss-making Pandora Media Inc or Groupon Inc.



Social game company Zynga closed up nearly 17 percent on Thursday in the first trading session after Facebook revealed it made 12 percent of its revenue last year from the video game publisher. [ID:nL2E8D2D1E]



"Facebook has the most potential," said Greenwich, Connecticut-based investment manager Jeff Matthews. "It's the next Google."



While retail investors are still combing through the numbers and doing the math, institutional investors have quietly bought Facebook shares via private pre-IPO exchanges like SharesPost and SecondMarket.

About 50 equity funds of the 3,842 tracked by Morningstar disclosed holdings of Facebook stock, led by Morgan Stanley's institutional Opportunity H fund with 3.5 percent of its $242 million portfolio devoted to the social network.



Other funds that have disclosed holdings included those managed by Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, ING, Principal and MassMutual.



EMOTIONAL CONNECTION



As with Apple and Google, consumers feel strong emotional connections to Facebook, which could make its stock vulnerable to wild swings if it attracts many retail investors.



When the SEC released Facebook's IPO prospectus on Wednesday evening, its website slowed to a crawl as traffic increased 100 times. Facebook also made it into betting books - Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is taking bets on what the share price will be when the social network begins trading.



The odds are 7 to 2 so far that investors will be paying between $25 and $34.99 for a share, according to the bookmaker.



"The challenge is trying to keep individual investor enthusiasm in some sort of line with economic reality," said Lise Buyer, an IPO adviser who worked at Google at the time of its IPO, but hasn't worked on the Facebook IPO.



Facebook "has very strong prospects, but all companies have stock prices that at some point must correlate to fundamentals."



The social network's 2011 revenue rose 88 percent to $3.71 billion while net profit increased 65 percent to $1 billion in last year. Those are not stellar numbers when compared with Apple's 65 percent growth in revenue to $108.24 billion in fiscal 2011. Apple also outpaced Facebook in terms of income growth, with profit increasing 85 percent to $25.92 billion.

Despite this, Apple - with nearly $100 billion in cash and securities - trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times, far lower than the 100 times historic P/E of Facebook's IPO, assuming the $100 billion valuation.



Even Microsoft -- which saw net income grow 23 percent to $23.1 billion and revenue rise 12 percent to 69.9 billion for fiscal 2011 -- trades at 11 times future earnings.



That's why Schermerhorn, whose firm already owns Apple shares, said he preferred to invest in Microsoft over Facebook. Amazon's shares trade at a relatively dear forward P/E of 131, while Google trades at 19.5.



"I know it is dominant in its space. Granted, the space is not growing as quickly as Facebook, but I am getting a nice dividend to wait," he said of Microsoft. "I don't have that with Facebook."
© Copyright (c) The Montreal Gazette

Friday, February 3, 2012

(BN) Zuckerberg Tops Google Founders With $28.4 Billion Facebook Haul


Others can go ahead and buy the shares off the existing owners, but i think the WHOLE company is worth no more than $25bn, and even that is overvalued at 25x PE.


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Zuckerberg Tops Google Founders With $28.4 Billion Facebook Haul

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc.'s initial public offering may value Mark Zuckerberg's stake at $28.4 billion, making him richer than Google Inc.'s co-founders and almost on par with Larry Ellison, who started Oracle Corp. 35 years ago.

The 27-year-old founder and chief executive officer of Facebook is the company's top stakeholder as it prepares to go public, with 533.8 million shares, or 28.4 percent, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. Investment firms Accel Partners and Digital Sky Technologies own a combined 16.8 percent.

Facebook said in its prospectus that it plans to raise as much as $5 billion in an IPO. The Menlo Park, California-based company is discussing a valuation of $75 billion to $100 billion, two people familiar with the matter said last week. At the top end of that range, Zuckerberg will own stock worth $28.4 billion. His command of the company goes beyond stock -- he controls 56.9 percent of the voting power.

"It looks from this as if Zuckerberg is maintaining a lot of control," said Rebecca Lieb, an analyst at Altimeter Group in New York. "He's shown a great deal of wisdom and maturity in bringing the company to this level of stability and profitability before going public."

By comparison, Google's Sergey Brin and Larry Page are each worth more than $15 billion based on their ownership of that company's shares. Ellison, 67, owns stock worth about $31 billion in Oracle, the software company he founded in 1977.

Lockup Period

While Facebook shareholders are poised for riches, they won't be able to start selling until the expiration of the so- called lockup period, in some cases six months after the shares begin trading. Zuckerberg may sell stock as part of the IPO, the company said in the filing.

Excluding Zuckerberg's ownership, the combined value of Facebook stock held by everyone else is $71.6 billion, based on a $100 billion valuation.

Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, whose work on the company was depicted in the 2010 film "The Social Network," owns 133.8 million shares, or 7.6 percent. Moskovitz was Zuckerberg's roommate at Harvard University.

Eduardo Saverin, another co-founder and Harvard classmate who sued Zuckerberg over ownership of the company, isn't mentioned in yesterday's filing. Neither are Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the brothers whose legal battles with Zuckerberg over Facebook also were dramatized in the Oscar-winning film. Napster co-founder Sean Parker, played by Justin Timberlake in the movie, is mentioned as a shareholder, though the amount of his ownership isn't included.

Facebook Executives

Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg owns 1.9 million shares, or 0.1 percent. She also holds 39.3 million restricted stock units of the company's total of about 380 million units outstanding. The shares underlying the units will be delivered to owners six months after the IPO.

Facebook Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman owns 7.5 million restricted units in addition to 2.2 million shares. Michael Schroepfer, vice president of engineering, owns 2.2 million shares and 6.1 million restricted stock units.

The biggest winner among venture backers is Accel Partners, the Palo Alto, California-based firm that invested $12.2 million in 2005. At the time, the site known as Thefacebook had 2.8 million users, all on college campuses. That number has risen to 845 million worldwide, according to the filing.

Even after selling 17 percent of its stake last year, Accel still owns as much as $11.4 billion in Facebook stock, more than twice the combined gains of Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers in Google's 2004 IPO.

Accel's Investment

Accel's bet on Facebook came less than six months after the venture firm struggled to raise a $440 million fund. That wager alone is now worth more than 25 times the amount raised for the fund.

Russia's Digital Sky made its first investment four years after Accel, buying $200 million in preferred Facebook stock for a 1.96 percent stake. Through subsequent purchases, the firm, founded by Yuri Milner and Gregory Finger, amassed 94.6 million shares, or 5.5 percent of Facebook.

Peter Thiel, who provided a seed investment for Zuckerberg in 2004, owns 44.7 million shares, or 2.5 percent of the company. Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape Communications Corp. and a Facebook board member, owns 3.6 million shares, or 0.2 percent, as well as 5.2 million restricted units.

Yesterday's filing only includes the holdings of investors who own at least 5 percent of stock and the stakes owned by board members and officers.

Other firms that own Facebook shares, including Greylock Partners, Elevation Partners and Meritech Capital Partners, aren't noted in the table of biggest holders.

Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, is an investor in Andreessen's venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net

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Thursday, February 2, 2012

Facebook IPO: The Company Has High Hopes for China


I'm happy to put my last penny in a bet that Facebook, in its current international form, has ZERO chance of entering China. Also, even if it succeeds in entering China, there is NO WAY it can beat the incumbents based on type and quality of content. 

If one understands the culture, history and fears of China, he will understand why I say so. I'm not going to explain why here.




Facebook has 845 million users around the globe, but it is essentially invisible in the world’s most populous country, where Facebook is blocked. But have a close read at Facebook’s IPO filing today. It sure sounds like Facebook has ambitions for China.

Facebook mentioned China in several points in its IPO document: (The bold text was added by Deal Journal.)

* “We continue to evaluate entering China. However, this market has substantial legal and regulatory complexities that have prevented our entry into China to date.”

* “China is a large potential market for Facebook, but users are generally restricted from accessing Facebook from China. We do not know if we will be able to find an approach to managing content and information that will be acceptable to us and to the Chinese government.”

* “We would also face competition from companies in China such as Renren, Sina, and Tencent in the event that we are able to access the market in China in the future.”

This IPO filing isn’t the first time Facebook has showed a longing to be involved in China. In 2010, Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said he was hoping to figure out the “right partnerships that we would need to do in China to succeed on our terms,” as Deal Journal colleague Loretta Chao reported today.

(BN) Deutsche Bank Says Profit Fell 76% as European Debt Crisis Sapped Trading


CO-Ceo?

Ok we got a nice new Porsche, now lets fit it with 2 CEOs - one to turn the wheel right (i know investment banking!) and the other to turn it left (im a german!)



Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Deutsche Bank Profit Tumbles as Debt Crisis Curbs Trading

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, said fourth-quarter profit fell 76 percent, more than analysts estimated, as Europe's debt crisis curbed trading and the company wrote down holdings.

The bank fell as much as 3.1 percent in Frankfurt trading after reporting net income of 147 million euros ($194 million), below the 556 million-euro average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The investment bank posted a 422 million- euro pretax loss.

Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann, who steps down in May, said 2012 will be another "challenging year." With his departure approaching, Deutsche Bank set aside funds for litigation and wrote down holdings in Greek government bonds, Icelandic generic drug maker Actavis Group hf, a Las Vegas casino and its BHF-Bank AG unit. The charges led to a loss of 722 million euros at the corporate investments unit.

"Ackermann might be trying to clear the slate for the new management, but it still doesn't look pretty," said Dirk Becker, an analyst with Kepler Capital Markets in Frankfurt.

The shares were 55 cents lower at 33.50 euros by 12:12 p.m. in Frankfurt. Deutsche Bank has advanced 19 percent since the European Central Bank said Dec. 8 it would offer unlimited three-year loans to lenders -- a decision Ackermann described to CNBC last week as important in easing some of the banking system's "funding challenges." Bloomberg's 43-company European banks index climbed 16 percent in the period.

'More Gratifying'

Anshu Jain, who takes over as co-CEO with Juergen Fitschen in May, told reporters today at a press conference in Frankfurt that January was "more gratifying" for the investment bank than the second half of 2011.

Deutsche Bank wasn't alone in reporting lower profit in the final three months of last year. New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, posted a 23 percent decline in profit on lower investment-banking fees and revenue from trading stocks and bonds. Earnings at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., also based in New York, dropped 58 percent, leading the firm to cut compensation in response to falling revenue. Among the five largest Wall Street banks, only Morgan Stanley posted an increase in trading income, excluding accounting gains, in 2011.

Debt Trading

Deutsche Bank scrapped its forecast for operating pretax profit of 10 billion euros for 2011 in November and announced 500 job cuts amid a "significant and unabated slowdown in client activity." Ackermann's purchase of Deutsche Postbank AG and Sal. Oppenheim Group to build up consumer-banking and wealth-management have failed to make up for lower investment banking.

"The scale of the economic slowdown in Europe and around the world will largely depend on further progress in solving the sovereign debt crisis," Ackermann said at the press conference. This will be "another very challenging year."

Deutsche Bank sees a pretax return on equity of about 15 percent to 18 percent in the near term because higher capital requirements are weighing on the industry, Ackermann said today. It may be able to reach about 20 percent in terms of pretax ROE in the longer term after it sheds legacy assets, he said today. In the past, Ackermann had set a goal of 25 percent.

The investment bank's loss compared to a 603 million-euro pretax profit a year earlier and the 233 million-euro profit estimate from nine analysts. Revenue from debt trading dropped to 1.04 billion euros from 1.61 billion euros, missing the 1.47 billion-euro estimate of analysts, while equity trading revenue decreased to 539 million euros from 872 million euros.

'Poor Quarter'

"Fixed income had a poor quarter because it's so linked to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe," said Christopher Wheeler, a London-based analyst at Mediobanca SpA who has an "underperform" rating on the stock. "That hit them hard."

Deutsche Bank booked costs of 380 million euros at the investment bank related to litigation and 154 million euros for U.K. and German bank levies.

Investment banks won't reach their previous peak revenue levels in the foreseeable future even if market conditions improve, Ackermann said today. The German firm is in "an ideal position to continue our growth and further increase profitability" at the corporate and investment bank, he said.

Pretax earnings at the consumer banking unit climbed to 227 million euros from 222 million euros, missing the 384 million- euro average estimate of analysts. The bank took charges on Greek bonds held at Postbank. Profit from the asset and wealth management business rose to 165 million euros, missing the 180 million-euro estimate of analysts.

Capital Gap

Deutsche Bank cited a "more challenging market environment" at the asset and wealth management division.

In November, the company announced a strategic review of its global asset-management division, excluding operations of the DWS mutual fund unit in Germany, Europe and Asia. Executives decided last month to pursue a sale of the businesses, which have almost 400 billion euros in assets under management, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

European leaders are demanding that some of the region's largest banks increase reserves after financial firms agreed to accept losses on Greek debt to help rescue the country. Deutsche Bank was among six German banks told to raise a total of 13.1 billion euros to boost core Tier 1 capital as a ratio of risk- weighted assets to 9 percent or more by June 30, after writing down the value of sovereign bonds.

'Legal Risks'

The company said Dec. 8 that it expected to plug the 3.2 billion-euro gap calculated by the European Banking Authority six months early, without saying how it will meet the goal.

Deutsche Bank is "well capitalized and will be able to meet the stricter regulatory capital requirements before the relevant deadline," Ackermann said, referring to the EBA targets.

Germany's largest lender expects savings to exceed 1 billion euros in 2012, strengthening its capital base and creating "scope for investments in growth fields," he said.

Deutsche Bank's core Tier 1 ratio at the end of 2011 was 9.5 percent under Basel 2.5 rules, a measure that differs in some respects from the EBA criteria. Risk-weighted assets rose by 44 billion euros in the fourth quarter as the bank adopted the stricter rules and implemented a "safety margin taken to cover unforeseen legal risks from the financial crisis," according to the statement.

The company plans a dividend of 75 cents a share for 2011, unchanged from 2010, according to the statement.

Deutsche Bank booked an impairment of 407 million euros related to Actavis, 97 million euros in expenses related to BHF- Bank and a 135 million-euro charge from the Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, which it took over in 2008 when the developer defaulted on a loan. The lender took an 144 million- euro impairment on Greek bonds at its private clients and asset management unit, according to the statement.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Comfort in Frankfurt at ncomfort1@bloomberg.net Aaron Kirchfeld in Frankfurt at akirchfeld@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Frank Connelly at fconnelly@bloomberg.net

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Will Facebook shares be a good investment? Money managers, analysts weigh in on IPO

There is no more growth in Facebook. Today's Facebook will be yesterday's Geocities. Yahoo could do no wrong onceuponatime.


Will Facebook shares be a good investment? Money managers, analysts weigh in on IPO

By Associated Press, Updated: Thursday, February 2, 3:30 PM

Facebook is finally going public.
For investors lucky enough to get in on the IPO, the question is simple: Is this going to be the mother lode that puts their kids through college? Or an over-hyped dud?
Facebook, whose stock ticker symbol will be FB, won’t trade for a couple months. Between now and then, debates about how the stock will do are going to be as heated as the one between Giants and Patriots fans this week over who will win the Super Bowl. To kick things off, The Associated Press asked some top money managers and analysts for their immediate reaction to Facebook’s regulatory filing Wednesday evening for a $5 billion IPO.
____
KEVIN LANDIS, chief investment officer of Firsthand Capital Management, the investment adviser to Firsthand Funds. The fund group includes Firsthand Technology Value Fund, a closed-end fund whose top holding is Facebook’s private shares. Those shares represent 5 percent of the fund’s assets.
— Disclosures in the filing about Facebook’s $3.7 billion in revenue last year and 845 million users have increased his confidence that Facebook can eventually become a profit powerhouse:
“They’re nicely profitable at a few billion in revenue. It probably means they will be obscenely profitable once they get to $10 and $20 billion.
“It’s probably growing north of 50 percent (a year), so they will be dropping more and more cash to the bottom line.
“As they grow into their potential, those profitability numbers, which are already really good, should get better and better, which is pretty amazing.”
— As for the $5 billion Facebook is seeking to raise:
“I think most people were figuring it could go out at up to $100 billion valuation, and they would float 5 to 10 percent of it, so that is right in the ballpark.
“You start out with a modest number. But gosh, you’re living right if $5 billion is a modest number.”
___
CHRISTOPHER BAGGINI, senior portfolio manager, Turner Titan mutual fund:
“I think the offering is a bit small in terms of the number of shares to be offered, and I suspect the $5 billion they expect to raise will be increased during the IPO process.
“If you can own the stock for an intermediate term, I suspect you will make money. Remember, when Google went public, the stock was valued at roughly $27 billion in 2003. It reached almost $200 billion by 2007. With Facebook, you have a very high growth, early stage company that has a profitability model that will be very similar to Google’s.”
___
JACK ABLIN, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago:
“I believe there’s a group that will buy this stock no matter how it’s priced. There’s a group — hedge funds or other large investors — that will buy all the social media issues because they don’t know which one will be the next Google.
“Looking back on the Internet days of the ‘90s, one Google will pay for 100 Pet.coms.
“It’s kind of a wildcatting type approach — you have to be involved in all of them.”
____
KARSTEN WEIDE, analyst with technology researcher IDC:
“This filing implies Facebook is valued at $100 billion, which I think is too high. That’s about 27 times more than their 2011 revenue. But even assuming they can double revenue this year, I think it’s too high. It’s reminiscent of the valuations for stocks in the Internet 1.0 days.
“Even if it were valued at just at $80 billion, I think it would be too high. There are a number of challenges and risks Facebook faces, and one is the growth of Google Plus (a rival social networking site).”
____
GARETH FEIGHERY, CEO of MarketTamer.com, a stock and options training website:
“The retail investor should be really skeptical of purchasing into the hype.
“Longer term, if investors are looking to hold it for many, many years, there’s a great opportunity. But in the short term, there’s a high level of risk that they could purchase on one of the spikes and get punished.”
___
TIMOTHY KEATING of Keating Capital Inc., a firm that makes investments in small private companies that expect to go public:
“Facebook could be one of the greatest companies on the planet.”
But Keating says that won’t necessarily make the stock a good buy. It all depends on the price.
He says investors will compare the price of Facebook’s shares with those of companies such as Google and Apple, and assess whether Facebook is richly priced measured against its earnings and sales growth potential. But Facebook is a younger company, which could lead investors to bid its shares up higher than the relative prices of Google and Apple.
“One could argue that Facebook still has huge growth prospects ahead of them, so they deserve a premium valuation.”
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

(BN) Louis-Dreyfus Widow Ousts Men Running Commodities Giant as Newest Chairman

Its difficult to live someone else's dream, even if that person is your spouse.


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Louis-Dreyfus Widow Chairman Ousts Men Running Commodities Giant

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- When Margarita Louis-Dreyfus took her 13-year-old twins on a weeklong trip to Brazil for school break in October 2010, it wasn't a beach-filled vacation.

She and the boys donned coveralls and hard hats. Then they toured the ports, plantations and juice factories of their namesake company, Louis Dreyfus Holding BV, in a crash course on the world's biggest cotton and rice trader.

It was uncommon terrain for Margarita. A self-described indifferent student, she says she studied law at Moscow State University and thrived on that city's culture while shuttling home to get an economics degree from the Leningrad Institute of Soviet Trade, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its March issue.

In 1988, on a flight to London from Zurich, she met Robert Louis-Dreyfus. A Frenchman with a Master of Business Administration from Harvard University, he'd go on to run companies on two continents before heading the commodities giant his great-grandfather founded in 1851. The two married in 1992. Margarita, who was working for a circuit-board-equipment seller, became a full-time wife and mother.

Leukemia Diagnosis

Robert was diagnosed with leukemia in 1997. As his battle against the disease intensified, he filled Margarita in on the business and created Akira Holding Foundation in 2008 to hold the 61 percent of Louis Dreyfus he'd go on to amass. He locked up the shares for 99 years and installed Margarita as family trustee, ensuring she couldn't be voted off the board. When he died in July 2009 at 63, he left her in the strongest position on the three-person board, overseeing the largest stake in the world's third-biggest agricultural commodities firm by revenue.

Since then, Margarita has immersed herself in Louis Dreyfus's far-flung businesses. She says her goal is to fulfill Robert's sickbed wish: to preserve the privately held, Amsterdam-based firm for his heirs.

"It was about protecting his children, his grandchildren, his great-grandchildren," she says, wearing jeans and gray boots with her silver jacket open to reveal a blue-and-pink T- shirt with sequin-covered hearts. "It's also protecting the company. What he was telling me every day were his dreams."

Daunting Challenge

Margarita, who will say only that she's in her 40s, has embraced a daunting challenge: She's a woman in a male-dominated business, who, with scant job experience, is seeking to steer a powerful family's commodities conglomerate.

"Generally, the boss needs to have been a trader," says Philippe Chalmin, an economics professor at the University of Paris-Dauphine, who studies agricultural markets. He gives Margarita credit:

"She's not like the image of the blond pinup wife," he says. "You might have expected her to just live off the income from her rich husband's estate, but that hasn't been the case."

Instead, Margarita is consolidating her power. In June 2010, Louis Dreyfus Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jacques Veyrat and another Akira trustee, Erik Maris, resigned from the three-member board after Margarita accused them of conflicts of interest. She cited Veyrat's stake in a Louis Dreyfus unit and Maris's position as an investment banker for her claims. In March 2011, she took over as Louis Dreyfus chairman.

Veyrat left Louis Dreyfus in June 2011. He and Maris declined to comment for this story.

'A Man's World'

Margarita, seated in the Geneva airport office of the company's commodities-trading operations, says Veyrat began thwarting Robert's wishes soon after his death.

Veyrat pushed for a share listing, even though her late husband had told her not to consider one for at least a year after he died. Veyrat also started preliminary merger talks with Singapore-based rival Olam International Ltd. without telling her, she says. The two men even refused to let her bring a business adviser to an April 2010 Akira meeting, she says.

"It's a man's world, and most of the time, men don't take women seriously," she says.

Now, she's in charge of one of the world's four traditional agricultural giants, which are known by their initials: ABCD. Leopold Dreyfus, son of a Jewish farmer in French Alsace, founded the company in Basel, Switzerland, and named it for his father, Louis. With Archer Daniels Midland Co., Bunge Ltd. and Cargill Inc., Louis Dreyfus is among the top players in the global food trade, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization.

Rare Feat

The company has 34,000-plus employees in more than 55 countries and posted $74.3 billion in 2010 revenue. Louis Dreyfus is the biggest fund manager in agriculture futures; the No. 2 wheat, corn and sugar trader; the third-largest coffee seller and juice processor; and a major farmer and biofuel processor, the company says.

Like U.S. rival Cargill, Louis Dreyfus has accomplished a rare feat in remaining private. And similar to that company's founding Cargill family, relations in the Louis-Dreyfus clan are strained. Matriarch Margaret Cargill's philanthropic wishes and the demands of family shareholders forced that company to shed its 64 percent stake in fertilizer company Mosaic Co. last year. (See "Keeping Cargill in the Family," September 2011.)

Margarita says that when Robert was alive, the couple regularly lunched with the Louis-Dreyfuses. Now, she doesn't see most of them except at company meetings.

'Business Relationship'

"I proposed that we continue, but they didn't want to," she says. "It's more like a business relationship now."

The family may resent Margarita because she's not a blood relative, Chalmin says.

��There's not a culture in the world where the in-laws take over a company with the founders' name on the building where they will be happy," says Randel Carlock, co-author of "When Family Businesses Are Best" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010).

Even so, Margarita will soon have to contend with the four family members who control the 39 percent of Louis Dreyfus the Akira foundation doesn't hold. In 2007, Robert granted options to his two older sisters and two of his cousins. The options allow these remaining family members with company stakes to sell their shares to Akira or back to Louis Dreyfus beginning this year.

Mehdi El Glaoui, a former pharmaceutical executive and confidant of Robert's whom Margarita named to Akira's board, values the company at about $7 billion. That puts the 39 percent stake at about $2.75 billion.

If the four sell, Robert's direct family and descendants would become the only surviving holders, cementing his plan. The cousins, Philippe Louis-Dreyfus and Laure Sudreau-Rippe, declined to comment. Robert's sisters, Monique Roosmale Nepveu and Marie-Jeanne Meyer, didn't respond to multiple phone calls.

'Enough Cash'

Margarita, wearing a gray dress with knee-high black boots in the bar of Paris's Hotel Fouquet's Barriere in November, says a year earlier she'd worried about having the money to buy out the family -- but no longer. Louis Dreyfus has shed some U.S. energy assets and its real-estate unit. It also sold its French energy business to Veyrat when he left.

"We have enough cash," she says. "Banks are also offering us a lot of help." She declined to elaborate.

Trading is bolstering earnings. The commodities unit generated 62 percent of the holding company's 2010 revenue and about 80 percent of its $892 million profit, says Serge Schoen, CEO of Louis Dreyfus Commodities BV. A fourfold jump in shareholders' equity to $5.3 billion from 2006 through 2010 has helped expand trading and let the company invest in ports and processing plants.

Relying on Schoen

Louis Dreyfus has kept value-at-risk, or the largest amount the company expects it could lose in a day, to less than 1 percent of equity, Schoen says. Employees own 20 percent of the unit, he says.

Margarita says she relies on Schoen to run things on a day- to-day basis. The Frenchman joined Louis Dreyfus's telecommunications division in 1999 from Boston Consulting Group Inc. after getting an MBA from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1996.

The commodities business has been on a tear since Robert promoted him to unit CEO from chief financial officer of the division in 2005. Revenue at the unit almost tripled to $46 billion, and net income, including minority shareholdings, increased 2.6 times to $1.05 billion in the five years through 2010. Revenue at the unit jumped to $60 billion in 2011, the company estimates.

'A Quiet Period'

Schoen, 44, has bigger plans. He wants to double commodities revenue during the next five years and boost earnings 10 percent to 15 percent annually, even as the first half of 2012 looks tougher than a year earlier.

Schoen estimates that profit at the unit fell 20 percent to 30 percent last year from 2010's record, mostly reduced by a year-end slump in Brazil's real. The weaker real caused a loss when the ethanol unit's dollar-denominated debt was revalued in the local currency, he says.

In China this year, buyers are ordering just two to three months of grains and other commodities, rather than the usual six months. That's cutting into fees from storage and insurance.

"We're still making good money, but it's a quiet period," Schoen says.

Louis Dreyfus is also fending off smaller competitors such as Olam, which is among the top suppliers of rice, cocoa and coffee. And Louis Dreyfus continues to joust with ADM, Bunge and Cargill to supply a global population the UN predicts will surge to 9.3 billion in 2050 from 7 billion last year.

Male Obsession

Paul Willows, a director at Starcom Resources Pte in Singapore and a former Louis Dreyfus trader, says Robert had wanted his commodities businesses to be in the global top three. El Glaoui says the company is on track.

"In the future, there will be three main actors in the field, and we are convinced we have our place in the top three," he says.

Margarita dismisses ranking size as a male obsession that doesn't interest her much. She says Louis Dreyfus is already among the biggest in the world.

"Men, they always count who is first, who is second," she says. "For me as a woman, I don't see it as being so important. The most important is who will be here in 100 years."

What's most surprising is that Margarita has adopted the mission of leading Louis Dreyfus so fully, Chalmin says. In January 2011, she dined with Glencore International Plc CEO Ivan Glasenberg at Blaue Ente, a restaurant in Zurich.

'Enjoying Our Privacy'

"It was a learning process," she says. "He explained many possibilities, what could be between our companies, and I knew he was preparing a big transition in going public."

Glasenberg declined to comment. Glencore sold $10 billion in shares in a May 2011 IPO after 37 years in private hands.

Margarita says Louis Dreyfus doesn't currently plan to list shares.

"We are enjoying our privacy," she says.

And she is grooming the next generation. She enrolled twins Kyril and Maurice, now 14, in boarding school in Singapore for a year to expose them to new ways of thinking. The couple's oldest son, Eric, 19, has an internship at Glencore. She says Asia, which represented 31 percent of Louis Dreyfus commodities sales in 2010, is a priority. She also wants to boost crop production in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine.

Leopold Dreyfus began importing grain from Russia and the Danube River basin in 1864, a decade after the company's birth. It formed its own bank in 1905 and opened its first U.S. office in 1909.

The Nazi-controlled French administration took over most assets in that country during World War II because the family was Jewish, according to dossiers in the French national archives. The remaining French assets were returned beginning in 1944.

Harvard Business School

Robert, who had spent a brief stint at Louis Dreyfus, rejoined after Harvard Business School in 1973 at the request of his father, Jean, who owned about half of the company. Robert focused on Brazil, turning around a factory for plant-derived edible oil, according to "Robert Louis-Dreyfus: The Incredible Odyssey of a Business Rebel" by Jean-Claude Bourbon and Jacques-Olivier Martin (Michel Lafon, 2009).

Seeing bigger opportunities, he wrote note after note recommending investments in orange juice, soybeans and sugar. They were ignored, according to the book. By the early 1980s, concerned he'd never be more than a junior member, he left and became CEO of U.S. pharmaceutical consulting company International Medical Services.

Nutcracker Ballet

While Robert was starting his career outside the family enterprise, his wife-to-be was a student. Born in the 1960s in what was then Leningrad, Margarita, nee Bogdanova, says her parents died in a train accident when she was 7. She was raised mainly by her grandfather Leonid Bogdanov. He died in 1985 when she was at university and spending time in Moscow. As a great consumer of Muscovite night life, she attended every ballet or opera she could with friend Ludmilla Ramage.

"She had a huge amount of energy and attracted a lot of people," Ramage recalls. Tchaikovsky's ballet The Nutcracker and Verdi's opera Rigoletto were favorites.

Margarita married a Swiss exchange student, moved to Zurich in the late 1980s and worked in phone sales at circuit-board- equipment seller Laytron AG. The couple divorced after a year.

In 1988, while flying to London, Margarita was unaware of the time difference with Switzerland and turned to the man next to her to check. After Robert pulled out a photo of his bobtail sheepdog, she was hooked. Later, Robert, who, like Margarita, was divorced, childless and living in Zurich, called to ask her to translate a document into Russian.

Lunch Date

"I said to him, 'You know, you could ask me out to lunch without any translation,' and he said, 'Oh, yes, yes,'" she recalls.

The two married four years later, in the middle of Robert's highflying career. He'd become CEO of U.K. advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi Ltd. in 1990, turning the company around amid a cash crisis. He moved to German sports-wear maker Adidas AG, also as CEO, quadrupling revenue to 5.84 billion euros ($7.5 billion) from 1993 through 2000. Battling leukemia, Robert announced in 2000 that he'd leave Adidas in 2001.

After two decades outside the fold, his family asked him to rejoin as chairman of Louis Dreyfus's telecommunications unit. He became CEO of the entire company in 2006. He increased his stake to 61 percent by buying out cousins including former CEO Gerard Louis-Dreyfus, father of Julia, the American actress who starred in "Seinfeld." He also sold the shipping unit, based in a Paris suburb, to cousin Philippe.

After leukemia complications suddenly worsened in mid-2007, Robert picked Veyrat to take over as CEO in early 2008; Veyrat became chairman later that year, Schoen says.

Margarita's Role

Margarita spent her remaining months with Robert soaking up the company. Doctors recall the couple discussing business while she studied leukemia and the John Cunningham virus, which affects people with compromised immune systems and would cause his death.

"Robert involved his wife a lot," says Gerard Tobelem, a decade-long friend and president of the French blood-transfusion service. "When he created this foundation, he told me it was so even if he disappeared, all he'd built in his life in business wouldn't dissipate and would stay as he devised."

Margarita showcased her mastery of new subjects and willingness to stick to her beliefs with Robert's illness, friends say. At the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, a doctor ordered Margarita to give Robert a drug, Tom Russell, who was best man at their wedding, says in an e-mail. Not getting a reason, she refused. The doctor exploded, telling her the medical consequences would be severe. She still declined. The doctor later apologized, Russell says. The drug was meant for another patient.

Robert's Wishes

"Her efforts from early on in the onset of the disease increased his life span by at least a year," he says.

Now, as Margarita carries out Robert's wish to preserve Louis Dreyfus for their descendants, she faces the challenge of remaining true to his vision.

"Margarita has an enormous loyalty to her husband and what he did," writer Bourbon says. "What's complicated is, she seems to always be saying in her head, 'I have to do what he would have done.'"

Margarita ultimately may have to wrestle with a greater obstacle: proving that a woman steeped more in Tchaikovsky than trading can steer a global commodities power. Thinking back on her trip to Brazil and her fight for control, she says those events helped her understand the scope and potential of the company -- and perhaps her own.

"It's been like jumping straight in the water," she says. "The good side of this has been forcing me to learn to swim."

To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Katz in Paris at akatz5@bloomberg.net .

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.net .

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(BN) Corzine’s Hoboken Penthouse Asking $2.9 Million, 11% Below Purchase Price

Looks like an awesome place, I would buy it but its a bit expensive for a relatively small pad.


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.
Corzine Penthouse Asking $2.9 Million, 11% Below Purchase Price
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- A Hoboken, New Jersey penthouse belonging to Jon Corzine, the former chairman of bankrupt MF Global Holdings Ltd., is on the market with a $2.9 million asking price, 11 percent less than Corzine paid in 2008.
MF Global, a New York-based futures broker, filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 31 with almost $40 billion in debt after making bets on European sovereign debt and getting margin calls. Corzine, a former governor of New Jersey and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., has been summoned to testify to Congress on Feb. 2 about MF Global's failure.
The two-bedroom penthouse is 2,400 square feet (223 square meters) "with no expense spared," according to the listing. It has floor-to-ceiling windows with a view of the Hudson River and the Manhattan skyline, Viking kitchen appliances and a Jacuzzi spa in the master bathroom. The owner also gets one indoor parking space. The apartment has a $1,700 monthly maintenance fee and property taxes of $38,003, according to the listing.
Corzine bought the apartment in November 2008 for $3.26 million, according to property records, in the project developed by Toll Brothers Inc. on a 24-acre waterfront site formerly owned by the Maxwell House Coffee Co.
Corzine's spokesman, Steven Goldberg, declined to comment on the listing. The listing agent, Jessica O'Connor-Williams with Halliburton Homes Real Estate Services, didn't immediately respond to a phone message and e-mail seeking comment.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Gittelsohn in Los Angeles at johngitt@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Taub at dtaub@bloomberg.net
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(BN) Sarkozy Transaction Tax May Drive Investors Away From French Stock Market

This happens when politicians refuse to use their brains. 


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Sarkozy Transaction Tax May Drive Investors From French Stocks

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The French stock market, Europe's second-biggest by value, may fall out of favor with investors after President Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled plans to unilaterally impose a 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions.

"Even if the tax isn't high, market participants who have a choice of stocks trading in Paris or elsewhere will go elsewhere," said Yves Maillot, the Paris-based head of investments at Robeco Gestions SA, which oversees $6.8 billion. "That's what we can fear."

Sarkozy, 57, who faces elections in a two-round vote in April and May, wants to make good on a pledge he made to impose such a tax when France last year held the presidency of both the G-8 and G-20 group of countries. He said Jan. 29 that France will impose the levy starting in August in spite of opposition from banks. The tax will apply to share purchases, including high frequency trading, and credit default swap transactions.

A France-only levy is opposed by the country's financial community and its feasibility has been questioned by the Bank of France. Governor Christian Noyer said on Jan. 16 that implementing such a tax would require resolving "numerous problems," including making it applicable across Europe.

"The concern is other countries won't follow and Paris will lose competitiveness," said Matthieu Giuliani, a fund manager at Palatine Asset Management in Paris, which oversees $4 billion. "For the domestic market, it is one more handicap."

'Wobbly Boxer'

Companies trading on the French stock market have a total capitalization of $1.52 trillion, second only to the U.K. in Europe, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 42 percent of the CAC 40 Index's market capitalization is held by non-residents, according to the Banque de France. The benchmark index sank 17 percent in 2011, tracking losses across Europe, as the region's debt crisis spread from Greece to Italy and Spain.

Sarkozy expects the tax to annually raise 1 billion euros ($1.31 billion) for the government's coffers and reduce its budget deficit. The relatively small size of the tax receipts suggests the impact of the levy may be limited, some analysts said, adding though that French financial stocks may be among those that may be hit.

Financial stocks were among last year's worst performers, with Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA each tumbling more than 54 percent.

"Given the fragility French banks still have following last year's credit crisis, imposing the tax now may be the equivalent of jabbing a boxer who is still wobbly after just getting knocked down," said Michael A. Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners LLC in New York.

Common System

BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, the country's three largest banks, each fell more than 6 percent yesterday on speculation trading revenue may be hurt.

"French bank stocks are already being attacked," said Yves Marcais, a trader at Global Equities in Paris. "It's clear that it'll have a direct impact on them. What you'll get is a decrease in transactions. Banks have trading activity and that will suffer."

The French financial industry has spoken out against imposing a transaction tax unilaterally in France.

"A tax that's limited to France would weigh on growth, lead to a loss of competitiveness, and create a heavy handicap for the financing of the French economy," the French Banking Federation said in a statement Jan. 9.

Germany is considering a plan for a European stamp duty on shares as an alternative to a transaction tax, in an effort to win over the U.K. to adopting a European Union-wide levy.

Less Control

"It would be good if everyone could apply it," said Pierre Mouton, a fund manager who helps oversee $7.5 billion at Notz Stucki & Cie. in Geneva. "If there is a common system, it's more efficient."

The U.K., home to Europe's biggest financial center, has in place a stamp duty. It opposes the transaction tax, with Prime Minister David Cameron saying Jan. 26 that a Europe-wide transaction tax would be "madness," and would cost 500,000 jobs.

Investors buying U.K. shares pay a tax of 0.5 percent on the price. The stamp duty is also levied on options to buy shares and rights arising from shares. Stamp duty on shares raised 3 billion pounds ($4.7 billion) in the year to April 2010, according to the government.

Meanwhile, Sarkozy's opponent in the presidential elections, Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande, too, has pledged to impose a tax on financial transactions, if he's elected. Palatine Asset Management's Giuliani said that he expects gains from France's transaction tax to be less than estimated as the industry finds ways to avoid it.

"Done by only France, it will lead to more offshore activity and less control," he said. "We know very well that the financial industry is very sophisticated and political leaders are running to catch up to this sophistication. This initiative isn't moving in the right direction -- except electorally."

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Rummer at arummer@bloomberg.net

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