Saturday, November 24, 2012

Mongolia investment climate as volatile as ever for miners


// Mongolians need to overcome the devils inside themselves. They often look back on Genghis Khan of more than a thousand years ago. But today is not a pan Asian-Europe republic of Mongolia. It is Mongolia, a landlocked country with only underground resources and cashmere.

In my eyes, Mongolians in power have already chosen. They want to make hay while the sun shines - make money - truckloads of it, and bank it in America and move over there - the land they grew up to know to be free, where the air is fresh. But to do this, they need to be in political positions, and to be in those positions, they need to win the masses. They would win the masses with short term short sighted policies, and protest in parliament - put up a good act. Life would be good if they could have a small cut of the billion dollars.

The masses are bound within the borders of Mongolia. They are nomads turned labourers living on coal fired heat outside the city center in UB. The middle class works in offices in UB. The whole city breathes and pollutes smog daily. A perpetual smoking room. While the country is dug out from its intestines and potholes and underground water and the environment is raped again and again.

The way forward for the country is actually all too clear. There is no way this country can progress with Russia and China having a stranglehold around Mongolia's neck. This is a country that can never succeed without the blessings of its neighbours. When you are forever reliant on your neighbours, yet abhor them, there is no way you can live well. 

At best, Mongolia will muddle on for the next 50 years until its resources run dry. Perhaps only once the resources are gone, will we know the true patriots of Mongolia.




Mongolia investment climate as volatile as ever for miners
Peter Koven | Nov 22, 2012 9:40 AM ET

REUTERS/Luke DistelhorstMongolian workers are seen at 551 meters below the surface of the earth while sinking an exploration shaft at the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project

Resource nationalism continues to rear its ugly head in Mongolia .

For the umpteenth time, the government is trying to renegotiate the 2009 investment agreement on the Oyu Tolgoi mine, triggering a confrontation with Rio Tinto Ltd. and Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. The government has assumed higher tax rates from Oyu Tolgoi in its current budget, even though the mining companies have no intention of paying them.

Pierre Fournier, a geopolitical analyst at National Bank Financial, warned that the risk of resource nationalism in Mongolia is not going away. He pointed out that there is popular support for it from Mongolians that are not seeing direct benefits from mining, and that politicians from all parties are increasingly supportive as well. In elections last June, the Democratic Party took power, replacing the Mongolian People’s Party. Since the Oyu Tolgoi agreement was signed by the prior government, this one has decided that it does not apply to them.


Additionally, Mr. Fournier noted that hostility between Mongolia and China remains an ongoing threat for mining companies. Mongolians dislike their neighbours and worry about creeping Chinese influence in their country. There was a huge backlash when a Chinese company tried to buy a majority stake in SouthGobi Resources Ltd., and it led the government to draft legislation that attempts to ensure that the state maintains control of “strategic” sectors like mining.

Put together, Mr. Fournier does not expect the investment climate in Mongolia to stabilize anytime soon. If anything, the latest efforts to raise taxes on Oyu Tolgoi will likely gain momentum ahead of presidential elections in May, he wrote.

“Whatever the outcome of the latest attempts to renegotiate the project’s original contract terms, political pressures on the mining sector as a whole will likely remain high for the foreseeable future,” he added.