Apple Now and Beyond - my take

I've not always been a critic of Apple and Steve Jobs. The first computer I touched was an Apple IIe and it filled me with awe - a typewriter with a monitor, the first programming language I studied was AppleBasic, and I wrote more than a hundred lines of code as a kid. I followed Apple through its close death with Lisa, the overpriced Mac, but it could never compete with the PC.

Steve Jobs leaving Apple wasn't considered a big deal in 1985. He was just the marketing guy for Apple, whereas Steve Wozniak was the geek who assembled the parts. I am not sure if Steve knows much about programming at all. So Steve Jobs is just a marketing guy, but a motivational speaker at that.

But the PC came along and it was a generic product, where components could be fixed together from different suppliers. Every supplier competes to produce the best product in his class, and I could set up my pc based on my preferences. Technology and software improved by leaps during this golden era, as each supplier surpassed each other - Intel and AMD are competitors till today, but carcasses of hardware companies whose era has passed lie on the tracks behind - the 'multimedia sound' wars of ad lib, turtlebeach, creative's soundblaster; the "multimedia video' wars of diamond, s3 virge, 3dfx voodoo.

Somehow, Apple survived through this era, there was a tiny fraction of people who would pay premium prices for past generation products, just for its smiley icon and different interface. I would suggest that if Microsoft had not supported Office for Mac, Apple would not see the light of this day.

For over 10 years, Apple was a computer company on the decline. Pathetic efforts in catching up with the PC did not yield results. It may have beated Amiga and Atari, but those companies were working in the same closed environment as Apple. Apple could not cope with the PC - HP, Dell, Compaq, Digital, IBM and the rest.

So Steve Jobs returned in 1997 or so, and did a good revamp of all the products of Apple from the aesthetic point of view. Like his departure, nobody thought much about his arrival. So what his attempts at NEXT, essentially a failed product, and Pixar, where animation had not yet taken off. Jobs continued to fail at making a good and cheap product that could compete.

I bought my first Apple Product in a G3. I had then enough of the neverending upgrades of my PC, and wanted to try the new OS X Jaguar. But I realised I hated the user interface - it was cute, but light years behind the ugly XP, where I could really do work. The trackpad in the middle of keyboard just leads to wrist problems, and worse, the single button mouse just doesn't make sense. I was appalled and after less then a year, I had no choice but to say goodbye to my G3. Regardless, whenever I later looked at other people using the powermac and new ibooks, I had a sense of envy - why? Why would such an impractical notebook be so attractive?

While the world forgot about the mac and rightly so, Apple started to find its way into the MP3 space. I already had tons of MP3 and played them on winamp on my pc, but it was creative soundblaster who first brought their mp3 players up against the sony discmans. I bought my nomad players from soundblaster and to my disgust, it required me to fix their software rather than a drag and drop style. I moved on to the first generation iPod, which also required me to install a ridiculous software called iTunes. iTunes would also add some unwanted programs such as quicktime, what I had not interest in because of better alternatives, and it just clogged up my PC. I had no choice, because of the price of the iPod, I would have to stick to my purchase and use iTunes!

No, iPod was pointless compared to the subsequently new mp3 players which were not as beautiful, but did the work far better. No one is going to need to admire cover flows or read lyrics when they are on the bus listening to music. iPod to me was too much fluff. But people seemed to like it. They could take out their iPod and let others admire the white face and polished metal back. It was a conversation starter.

The icing on the cake for most people was the ability to buy cheap music. That was the key to success for Steve Jobs.

The success of the iPod was a significant step for Steve Jobs to move on to his next pet project, a mobile phone. I had significant positions by then in Apple Stock - perhaps a quarter of my net worth, and I benefited of course. When the iPhone was launched, I felt that it would flop. I was then using the Palm, and the lack of software would be a problem for iPhone. It didn't help that all the apps on iPhone were then webapps, which meant you needed be downloading via GPRS to get any data for your apps to work. That was ridiculous. But it was a flaw Apple quickly learnt.

A few things were key to Apple's successful iPhone i) the shape and look of the phone compared to other models ii) the fact that it was also an iPod and users could buy music through itunes. It was only much later when Apple beat Palm on the number of apps available in its iTunes, and because a juggernaut. I was taken - I bought 2 iPhone 1s, 3 iPod Touches, and have gone through 3 iPads.

There was not much improvement from iPhone 1 to iPhone 3G, other than that it was 3G enabled - that would be useless for developing countries. Then there was 3GS,which was just faster. iPhone 4 had a new CPU, retina display and that's all. iPhone 4S was just a faster iPhone 4. The truth is that there has been no significant leaps in hardware, and most of the effort was placed on improving the OS.

By the time iPhone reached its 4th edition, I had decided to move over to the Android. Android, to be honest was crap. It works on the same PC strategy, but would that strategy work for something as intimate as a handphone? Why shouldn't it?

But many players - samsung, sony, lg, htc, asus have tried, but in 2011, none had been successful. However Google had done a lot for andriod - improved its OS time and time again. I felt it was the PC era all over again, where I had to upgrade my hardware repeatedly - only this time, it was not easy to upgrade the Android OS. In fact, there is no need to, if I were just looking for a phone, and all the old apps were working just fine. Apple apps had already done the hard work, and software programmers were porting their finished software to Android. There is no need to develop a better calculator.

I thought the best time to short the Apple stock was when Steve Jobs suddenly passed on. I felt a tinge of disappointment, because it was only he who had the clout and authority to bulldoze his way through. He is very much like Donald Trump - my way, or high way. It would be fine as long as he tries his best to improve his product. But over time, it was clear his strategy was going to be to sue, and that was the strategy Tom Cook is adopting.

The downfall of Apple has not occurred yet. But in recent years, my view is that Apple is going to be the Dell of yesterday. Tom Cook is not Steve Jobs and Steve Jobs is irreplaceable because of his ability to bully his way with the mobile providers (although a clear fail in China), bully the reviewers (the press and computer magazines, even PC mag, who swoon over every Apple product because Apple pays them off), the manufacturers (like Foxconn, samsung, sharp who compete for business and cut corners in China) and his ability to market. However those same 'magical', 'unbelievable' phrases do not ring so clear anymore when spoken from the lips of others. There is no marketing flair nor emotional charge to buy an iphone now.

History repeats itself all the time, and patents are the best way for an incumbent with thousands of patents to sue the new kid. There is a balance, because obviously patents need to be protected. But if the incumbent is obsessed with protecting its patents at the expense of moving forward, it is only a matter of time this elephant will succumb to the wolves. The elephant can only stomp on so many wolves.

Apple is used to bullying its partners. There is only 1 apple but tens of mobile operators, tens of manufacturers. What if there is only 1 manufacturer who can build Apple's CPU, display and camera? That is the case with Samsung. It is laughable when Apple boasts retina display and A6 CPU, that Samsung manufactured. But we know what this will lead to. One day, this wolf will not be content with playing to Apple's tune. It will team up with Google and even Microsoft against Apple.

Apple's strength today is in its industrial design in hardware and integration in software. This has been the case for decades, and it is still the case today. There is no way it can compete with hardware power - Samsung rules that completely. And as Samsung catches up in a decent industrial design, but excellent software, it is inevitable that the cracks at Apple will show. But Samsung is just 1 wolf. There are tens of wolves out there. And when Apple shows its cracks, it won't be just the manufacturers - the inability of Apple to hold clout will result in weakening support from the mobile providers and reviewers. Already, reviewers have the gall to criticise Apple's iphone 5. What next? The king is dying. He may not be dead soon, but he is certainly dying.

There has been a lot of talk about a growth area called China. Lots of misconceptions here, where reporters sitting in desks in New York report in excitement about the fact there are only 2 Apple stores in Shanghai, and catering to 15 million people - Shanghainese are queuing up to Beijing for an iPhone. But they obviously do not know the sentiment is stark. iPhone 5 is not yet officially in China, but noone's buying it. People are holding on to their 4S, and if upgrading, Samsung S3 is the way to go. So fickle and lacking loyalty, these Chinese! But it is always great for marketing to mention China - its a gold mine, definitely, but sorry, you can't reach it. And neither can Facebook.

Noone knows the future, but as long as Apple sticks to innovation in its design - making something really sexy, improving its software - Apple Maps is a great example of a giant leap backwards, and keeping phones affordable, it will continue to exist. But this will not prevent someone else who is able to put things together, such as Samsung, to come in and be really successful. But even Samsung is not immune to new challenges. Android and Win8 will go the way of the PCs, while iPhone is going its own way. In the longer run, my guess is that history will repeat itself. iPhone will be used by the minority, while open systems will be used by 90% of phone users.