Thursday, May 24, 2012

(BN) Facebook at $22 Seen in Europe’s Structured Warrants


The market dares say what journalists dare not

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc. may fall more than 42 percent below its initial public offering price by the end of the year, according to bets by structured-product investors.

The most actively traded structured products tied to Facebook since its IPO have been so-called put warrants, whose buyers profit if the shares drop below a pre-defined level, in some cases as low as $22, data compiled by Bloomberg show. UBS AG, Commerzbank AG and Julius Baer Group Ltd. are among lenders that listed 1,504 warrants and certificates in Europe linked to shares of the social networking site that were offered at $38.

Since raising $16 billion on May 17 in the biggest technology IPO of all time, Facebook has tumbled, closing at $32 yesterday. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the brokerage industry's watchdog both said they may review the deal, after a person familiar with the matter said Facebook and Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter, increased the offering price to persuade the company's backers to sell more of their stock.

"There has been strong demand on the put side, with the ratio between puts and calls at around 70/30" with "some people expressing deep downside views," Heiko Geiger, the head of public distribution for Germany and Austria at Bank Vontobel AG in Frankfurt, said in an interview yesterday.

Ashley Zandy, a spokeswoman for the Menlo Park, California- based company, declined to comment.

Best Seller

Bank Vontobel's best-selling Facebook-linked product is a put warrant that will reward investors if the shares are below $22, the so-called strike price, in December, said Geiger. Put warrants give investors a cash payment depending on how far a stock falls below a set level.

Julius Baer sold the securities with the largest trading volumes, two put warrants with strikes of $35 and $30 on the Scoach exchange in Zurich. Investors traded 402,000 contracts yesterday valued at $335,780 of the former and 603,000 warrants for $322,620 of the latter, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Zurich-based structured products distributor EFG Financial Products AG added Facebook shares to a basket of 10 social media companies that are tracked by a certificate that has traded on Scoach since last month, it said in an e-mailed statement.

Facebook rose in German share trading today, climbing 1.6 percent to $32.50 as of 12:14 p.m. in Frankfurt.

Massachusetts Subpoena

The Massachusetts security division subpoenaed Morgan Stanley this week over its communications with clients. The firm said it handled the May 17 sale properly.

The cost to short-sell Facebook has surged to the most- expensive level in a 10-point scale developed by Data Explorers Ltd., which said bets against the social-media company amount to 4.3 percent of shares sold in the IPO.

About 18 million Facebook shares are on loan, an indication of short selling, London- and New York-based research company Data Explorers said in an e-mail, citing trades settled as of May 22. Facebook's underwriters sold 421.2 million shares to the public last week last week.

The loans represent about 1 percent of Facebook's 2.14 billion Class A and Class B shares outstanding, according to Data Explorers. That compares with 5.3 percent for Zynga Inc. and 4.1 percent for LinkedIn Corp., the data show.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alastair Marsh in London at amarsh25@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Armstrong at parmstrong10@bloomberg.net

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(BN) Google Void Seen as Opportunity for China Mobile App Store: Tech

Ignorant West doesn't know the app called 91软件

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc.'s Android operating system runs two-thirds of the smartphones sold in China yet the company's online app store, Google Play, isn't open for business there because of censorship concerns. That's creating an opportunity for China Mobile Ltd.

The world's biggest phone company by subscribers opened its Mobile Market store for Android apps in 2009, and it now has 158 million registered users. Customers have downloaded more than 630 million apps, making Mobile Market the world's largest carrier-operated app store, said Jack Kent of IHS Screen Digest.

The success of Mobile Market comes at a welcome juncture for the wireless giant, fueling revenue growth as its core business matures. China Mobile competes with Apple Inc.'s App Store in a nation where Analysys International said mobile applications and services are set to jump 80 percent to 220 billion yuan ($35 billion) this year as cheaper smartphones make surfing the Web more affordable.

"Without having to compete with the official Google store, China Mobile has an opportunity that operators in other countries don't have," said Kent, a London-based analyst. "China Mobile's relationship with subscribers leaves it well- placed to take advantage."

The carrier's data services business, including Mobile Market, jumped 15 percent last year to 139.3 billion yuan, compared with an 8.8 percent growth in total sales.

Facebook, Twitter

China Mobile shares fell 0.8 percent to HK$81.90 in Hong Kong trading today, trimming the gains this year to 7.9 percent.

Shipments of smartphones in China are projected to jump 52 percent this year to 137 million units, overtaking the U.S. for the first time as the world's biggest market, according to a March estimate from market researcher IDC.

Phones running Android accounted for 68 percent of sales in the fourth quarter, while Apple's iPhone made up 5.7 percent, according to Beijing-based Analysys International. Apple's online store generated about $2.9 billion in global app sales last year, compared with about $618 million for Google, Kent estimated.

"The reason we care about this business is that it can help drive or promote our other businesses," China Mobile's Chief Executive Officer Li Yue said in a May 16 interview. "If a developer makes a very good app, then it will help boost traffic on our network and help our growth that way."

All Web content in China is censored, and that control extends to online stores selling apps, games and e-books. Both Mobile Market and Apple's Chinese-language store, which takes payment in local currency, abide by government censorship restrictions and don't offer apps to access the blocked websites of Facebook Inc., Twitter Inc. and YouTube Inc.

Google Censorship

Google said in January 2010 it was no longer willing to self-censor content for Chinese services, so it shuttered its local search page and redirected users to a Hong Kong site. Taj Meadows, a Tokyo-based spokesman for Google, declined to comment on why Google Play was unavailable in China. The store has more than 450,000 apps and games, the company said in March.

China Mobile's store has 68,663 apps, compared with 560,957 for Apple, said Sun Peilin, a researcher at Analysys International. Mobile Market's offerings include Instagram Inc.'s photo-sharing and editing software, and Rovio Entertainment Oy's Angry Birds, Angry Birds Seasons and Angry Birds Space.

China Mobile's sales from applications and information services grew 12 percent to 48.4 billion yuan last year, accounting for 9.2 percent of total sales and overtaking text messages as the company's biggest source of data revenue.

Drive Traffic

That total includes 22 billion yuan from mobile music, 1.5 billion yuan from mobile e-mail services, 627 million yuan from e-books and 571 million yuan from mobile videos, according to the company's annual report.

Mobile Market has become the world's largest Chinese- language application software platform, Li said.

Sales from the Mobile Market last year were about 23 million yuan, though the traffic generated by app downloads among China Mobile's 667.2 million mobile-phone subscribers is more important to the carrier, Li said.

China Mobile is forecast to post its third straight year of sales growth after reporting revenue gains of at least 10 percent from the time of its 1997 Hong Kong listing through 2009. Sales growth may slow to 7 percent this year, according to the average of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Unicom, Telecom

China Mobile isn't the only local company looking to fill the Google gap for Android apps. Analysys International tracks 13 major app stores in China, including from carriers China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. and China Telecom Corp., and device makers including Lenovo Group Ltd.

"We see a lot of competition in the app store space in China," said Lisa Soh, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Macquarie Group Ltd. "The competition in app platforms is likely to mean it will be more difficult to monetize."

One thing that may help China Mobile generate sales is that it offers the highest percentage of paid apps versus free apps among all stores in China, Sun said. Mobile Market charges for 91 percent of its apps, while China Unicom charges for 77 percent and Apple's for 48 percent.

Many games in China Mobile's shop are offered in local currency prices that range from the equivalent of 50 cents to $1.50.

"A couple of years ago, everyone began to realize how huge Apple's App store was becoming and wanted into that market," said Neil Juggins, a Hong Kong-based analyst at JI Asia Research Ltd.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Edmond Lococo in Beijing at elococo@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net

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Sunday, May 20, 2012



This makes a mockery of the institution of marriage, when a girlfriend has the same rights as a legally acknowledged wife. Good luck to France, you have a "First Girlfriend" with 2 failed marriages and 3 children - just the stability France needs right now.


France's unwed first lady makes summit debut
WASHINGTON — A demure and elegant Valerie Trierweiler took her first steps on the world stage as France's new -- unwed -- first lady Saturday, joining Michelle Obama and G8 summit wives on a White House tour.
Trierweiler, the partner of new French President Francois Hollande, wore a black, knee length wrap dress, with black heels and carried a handbag, as she and other leaders' wives viewed the East Room of the White House.
The first ladies then tucked into an intimate lunch of Maryland Rockfish with local asparagus, grapefruit, Virginia berries, and vegetables from the White House Garden, followed by tangerine sorbet with Virginia strawberries.
Other G8 spouses at the White House as the summit went ahead at the presidential retreat at Camp David, Maryland, included Laureen Harper of Canada, Hitomi Noda of Japan, and Elsa Antonioli Monti of Italy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's husband, professor Joachim Sauer, did not take part in the tour or lunch.
Trierweiler, who has been Hollande's partner since 2007, on Friday took part in a reception at the French embassy in Paris.
She is also expected to link up again with the spouses of world leaders in Chicago on Sunday, at a NATO summit also hosted by President Barack Obama.
She will join Mrs Obama and fellow spouses on a visit to the south-side Gary Comer Youth Center followed by a private dinner at the Art Institute of Chicago. On Monday, Trierweiler is scheduled to visit a French international school in Chicago.
US officials have said that there is no established protocol rule for how unmarried partners of world leaders should be treated.
So Trierweiler was invited to participate in all spousal programs at both the G8 and in Chicago.
The 47-year-old journalist -- twice divorced and the mother of three children, has caused a stir in the US media.
But outlets have been puzzled about how to describe the female half of the first unmarried occupants of the Elysees Palace, with CNN favoring "girlfriend" and others opting for "spouse," "partner" or "companion."

Chen thanks US, praises China


Everyone, lets get real. The reason why China let him go is they don't want a single blind man to ruin US China ties. The reason why US is protesting is because of some people are living in their small little space in Utah thinking all people and animals are free, including the meat of the cow they just ate.

Chen has done it good for himself. He was well fed in China, his fake handicap and humble gestures circulated all over the press. While his countrymen, many ill, blind and handicapped, have the spirit to plow on. 

Good riddance Chen Guangcheng, let's see if you'll make yourself a pest in US too.




Chen thanks US, praises China

From:AAP
May 20, 2012 11:26AM




AFTER landing in the United States to begin a new life, blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng has praised Beijing's "restraint and calm" during the month-long tussle that tested China-US ties.


Chen asked to say a "few simple words" as he, wife Yuan Weijing and their two children were greeted with cheers as they arrived at the New York University apartment block that is now their home.


"After much turbulence I have come out of Shandong. This is thanks to the assistance of many friends," he said. "At the most critical juncture the American embassy in China provided a safe haven and the American government has provided me with assistance and granted me citizenship rights here."


Chen expressed his gratitude to the American embassy for ushering him to a new life in the US, but also praised the "restraint and calm" of the Chinese government during the row, saying he believed Beijing's promises were "sincere".



The self-taught lawyer won international plaudits for investigating forced sterilisations and late-term abortions under China's "one-child" policy.


He and his family touched down at Newark Liberty International Airport, outside New York, on a United Airlines flight from Beijing shortly before 6.30pm yesterday (8:30am today AEST).


His arrival capped an odyssey that began when Chen escaped from his village in April after more than seven years either in prison or house arrest.


Earlier this month Chen gave a gripping account of his escape, describing how his wife had pushed him over the wall around their small home. He broke his foot when landing, but scrambled to a neighbour's pig sty, where he hid until nightfall.


After a long and painful journey through fields and over walls, he made his way to a friend's home, then to the US embassy. His shock arrival there sparked an international row that threatened to damage China-US relations.


Officials hastily struck a deal to let Chen go free - an agreement that appeared to suit both sides.


That accord hit a snag before protracted negotiations secured a new agreement to allow him to participate in a fellowship at New York University.


After more than two weeks in a Beijing hospital, Chen was suddenly given notice earlier on Saturday to prepare for departure.

Jiang Tianyong, a lawyer and friend, said Chen had mixed feelings about leaving China but thought it was "the best he could do to ensure his personal safety".


US politicians have welcomed Chen's arrival but many are concerned about his family and other dissidents who remain in China.


"The arrival of Chen Guangcheng to the United States is a milestone in the cause for human rights in China," said former House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi.


"The courage of Chen Guangcheng to risk his life and livelihood to advocate for disadvantaged people in China is an inspiration to freedom-seeking people around the world."


As a research fellow at NYU, Chen is expected to work with other law school experts.


"I look forward to welcoming him and his family tonight, and to working with him on his course of study," said Jerome Cohen, co-director of the US-Asia Law Institute at the NYU School of Law.

The Big Lie of the Facebook IPO: Opinion


Emperor has no clothes Daddy!


The Big Lie of the Facebook IPO: Opinion


By Dana Blankenhorn05/19/12 - 02:07 PM EDT
Add Comment



NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- On Friday, like most of you, I watched the nation's media help to perpetrate one of the great frauds in American history.


Consider. If I can barely sell 15% of something at $38 a share, if I have to lay out millions-upon-millions of dollars to prop up that price for a single day, what makes you think I can sell the rest of it at that price, or anything like that price? Exactly.


Yet there was ABC News claiming that Bono'sElevation Partners "made" $1.6 billion in theFacebook(FB_) IPO. There were anchors on all the other networks breathlessly claiming that there were now hundreds of "Menlo Park millionaires" who held shares in the social networking company.


I spent much of the day at Stocktwits, watching people with money comment on the action in real time. As the day went on, the mood went from euphoria to anger to disgust. A typical comment: "When I got up today, it felt like the Superbowl. Now it feels like it's the 4th quarter of a 45-0 blowout."


The insiders knew the story: The brokers who were in the IPO were standing by with orders to buy at $38, no matter what, all day. And they knew, we all know, that won't go on for long.


Even while this was happening, with Facebook trades coming across at both $42 and $38 and change at the same time in after-hours trading, CNBC kept pretending nothing was happening on its own ticker.


Why wasn't anyone, on any network, allowed to say that this new technology emperor was wearing no clothes, that the company wasn't worth anything near what brokers were claiming it was worth, that a fraud was being perpetrated on the public investor?


I'm still waiting for an answer.


Now I know Facebook makes a great story. It sounds just like the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, where everyone believed they could get rich quick. Even me.


But it was nothing like that.


The gains were all gotten by the insiders, by the venture capitalists and brokers who bought into the company first. I have no doubt the company is worth many times what Bono paid for his stake. But by the time Facebook went public -- long before, in fact -- it was a fairly mature enterprise facing serious headwinds.

As Facebook millionaires party, what future for new shareholders?


Its really quite amusing the hordes of fund managers oversubscribing the facebook IPO. As I have envisaged, the winners are the original owners of facebook. The selfish bastards left nothing on the table, but who is to blame them? The new shareholders are the suckers. Wealth is transferred for the stupid to the less dumb. 

Let's look at what happens on Monday, when the stock price will plunge further, and see the underwriters lose their pants trying to get the price up above water.

This stock is worth no more than 5x PE, and at best worth $5bn. It is going the way of MySpace, Geocities and the like. Nothing is going to change its fate.


-------------------------


As Facebook millionaires party, what future for new shareholders?


An expected 'pop' in share prices never came as Facebook went public this week. But Facebook's IPO was a measured affair, lacking in irrational exuberance, and laying the groundwork for the network's main challenge: Turning 'friends' into consumers.


By Patrik Jonsson, Staff writer / May 19, 2012

ATLANTA
Speculators hoping for a big “buy, sell” cash out from the Facebook IPO were mostly disappointed Friday as Wall Street agreed that the $38 per share asking price set by the social network’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg, was just about right for the launch of the 8-year-old company’s publicly-owned entity.
The historic IPO – the second largest ever, behind VISA – made billionaires and millionaires out of hundreds of Facebookers as the company raised $16 billion by selling 421 million shares, setting the stage for the evolution of a firm that started as a digital college kid hangout to become a profitable purveyor of personal status updates and “likes” connecting about 15 percent of the world’s population
But as its value rose to rival corporate behemoths like McDonald’s and Amazon, the Facebook IPO also represented an uneasy ascendancy of a company that many people say teeters on being a fad, run by a 28-year-old wunderkind who prefers hoodies and sneakers over suits and ties.
Although several underwriting banks had to buy shares in order to keep the price from dipping below its offering price, some analysts saw the measured debut as a good sign, setting the company up for a decent shot at building a profitable ad model to boost the company’s earnings and value.
“Zuckerberg priced the shares correct,” writes columnist Nathan Vardi, at Forbes. “This was not a modest debut; it was a home run.”
The stock price rose slightly on Friday as prospectors prodded before falling back to around $38.
The IPO created instant wealth for hundreds of private share holders, mostly around California’sMenlo Park. Zuckerberg himself is now worth $19 billion, about five times the company’s annual revenues, and U2 singer Bono, an early investor, saw his worth rise by $1.5 billion, making him the wealthiest musician in the world, richer than Paul McCartney.
But the IPO also came amid growing questions, including from General Motors, about whether Facebook’s ad model actually works. GM decided to pull a $10 million ad buy. And with revenue growth slowing, Facebook has also struggled in the mobile space, which will become, according to Zuckerberg, its prime goal this year.
The company has also struggled with privacy concerns, since it uses personal information to target ads. While some polls have suggested that Americans may be tiring of the “social utility,” it has, some experts note, become almost too ubiquitous to fail.
With public investors eyeing the company’s every move, the push to monetize content on the site is likely to be stepped up as Facebook now has to prove it can make money, all of which will continue to test the creativity of the young – and now very rich – Facebook brain trust.
“There is more pressure to make money and I think users see that,” says Roger Cheng, the executive editor of the tech site CNET, in a recent CNBC interview. “That said, people are stuck with Facebook, all their friends are on it. So … even if people are turned off by the ads, it is tough to see people leaving the Facebook service."
That fact alone won’t likely be enough to allay worries among Facebook’s new share owners and the bankers who bought shares to prop up the price.
As the IPO party continues on the West Coast – where Porsches are flying off dealers’ lots into the garages of newly-minted overnight millionaires – “anxiety increases on the East [Coast] – at least for the bankers fearful of Monday morning,” writes tech columnist Paul Sloan.
So far, most Wall Street analysts are holding back assessments until Monday's opening bell. Some, however, are already saying "sell."
“While we like the company, we’re troubled by investors’ perception of the risks,” said Brian Wieser, an analyst for Pivotal Research Group, in a meeting with reporters. “It’s priced for perfection and that’s clearly implausible.”

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

(BN) Ex-Deutsche Securities Banker to Start Hedge Fund Investing in Commodities

Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Ex-Deutsche Securities Banker Plans Commodities Hedge Fund

May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Ryo Ishiyama, a former Deutsche Securities Inc. banker, plans to start a hedge fund investing in global commodities futures as early as July using a strategy he employed on his own personal investments.

The hedge fund will employ a so-called CTA strategy that uses computer systems to invest in exchange-traded futures around the world, said Ishiyama, 32, who set up Tokyo-based Steinberg Capital Co. in October 2011. The fund will have 300 million yen ($3.8 million) initially, 200 million yen of which is Ishiyama's own money. He plans to raise the fund's maximum capacity of 1 billion yen in about a year, he said.

Ishiyama joins a breed of new hedge funds seeking to provide alternative investments for Japanese clients following AIJ Investment Advisors Co.'s suspension by regulators for allegedly losing more than $1 billion with hedge-fund strategies. Ishiyama said he began investing 10 million yen of his own money in 2006 and that grew to 200 million yen by using a systematic trading strategy.

"What I want to offer isn't investments that cater to investors' requests, but rather want to attract investors who understands my strategy and are willing to put in money because of my strategy," Ishiyama said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. "As we've seen in AIJ's case, you don't run a fund for the sake of raising more money -- you run a fund to make returns."

Newcomers

Ishiyama's fund will target annual returns of about 20 percent and will have a Sharpe ratio of 2.3, he said. Sharpe ratio is a formula which analyzes whether investments offer enough returns to offset their risks. The greater a fund's Sharpe ratio the better its risk-adjusted performance. Funds employing equity strategies would typically have a Sharpe ratio of about 1, he said.

The new fund will invest in global commodities markets including the New York Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest energy exchange, and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Ishiyama said.

Most Japanese institutional investors are buying passive funds that track indexes to tap the commodities markets, leading to mispricings that create opportunities, Ishiyama said.

Traditional CTAs, which rely on developing computer models that fit historical price curves, do well in markets with clear trends. They tend to lose money when markets suddenly change direction. The Eurekahedge CTA/Managed Futures Hedge Fund Index has declined 0.6 percent through April.

"I am only seeking to raise money with the capacity of the strategy and not any more until I enhance the system," he said. "For now, I want to focus on managing private money, which is mostly my own money, to build my track record."

Almost 21 percent of Japanese pension funds plan to increase alternative investments in the fiscal year that started on April 1, a survey by JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Tokyo-based asset management unit. The increase was the most among 10 asset types.

Ishiyama said he will officially leave Deutsche Securities, where he developed fixed-income derivative products after joining in Tokyo in 2010, at the end of the month. He began his career in 2002 at Daiwa SB Capital Markets where he was an equity derivatives trader, after which he worked at Citigroup Global Markets and Morgan Stanley in Tokyo, where he developed derivatives products.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tomoko Yamazaki in Singapore at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net Komaki Ito in Tokyo at kito@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at apapuc1@bloomberg.net .

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Thursday, April 26, 2012

(BN) Hollande Vows Not to Ratify Euro Pact, Auguring Merkel Clash

The problem is that markets don't listen to politicians.

If Hollande thinks he can make money out of nothing,  then he will be another politician who to be whallopped by the markets (not that he really cares) Like the rest, he will play to his crowd and blame it in bankers.

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- French Socialist Francois Hollande, the leading presidential candidate, said France won't ratify the European agreement pushed by Germany to tighten budget rules if he's elected.

"There will be a re-negotiation," Hollande told journalists today in Paris. "Either there will be a new treaty, or there will be a modification of the existing treaty. It's about negotiation."

The comments put Hollande on a collision course with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has championed debt reduction as the key to ending the region's fiscal crisis. Hollande, who has also pledged to eliminate France's budget deficit, is aiming to use popular support at home to strengthen his hand in talks to promote an alternative.

Merkel and her ruling party are standing firm on German-led remedies, including the commitment to cut debt that was signed last month by all 17 euro-area leaders, among them Hollande's opponent, President Nicolas Sarkozy.

"If Mr. Hollande were to say that he wants to increase government spending and save less, he'll lose the confidence of the financial markets," Peter Altmaier, the parliamentary whip of Merkel's Christian Democrats, said in an interview in Berlin yesterday. "We will stick to our fundamental principles because there's really no alternative."

Hollande finished first among 10 candidates in the first round of France's presidential election with 28.6 percent of the vote. Incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy finished second with 27.2 percent. The two face off in a decisive electoral contest on May 6.

Resistance Growing

Germany, the largest country contributor to euro-area bailouts, is facing growing resistance from traditional allies to its anti-crisis prescriptions as a $1 trillion firewall and unlimited European Central Bank loans to the region's lenders fail to stop the turmoil from threatening Spain and Italy.

ECB President Mario Draghi said it's too early to talk about a plan for weaning the euro area off emergency measures. "Any exit strategy is premature given the current situation," Draghi told lawmakers in Brussels today.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte urged politicians yesterday to tackle the country's economic woes after his coalition collapsed over proposed budget cuts, raising investor concern about his country's ability to retain its AAA credit rating. A proposal on austerity measures will be sent to parliament today.

European 'Credibility'

Merkel, who faces two German state elections next month and a national election in the fall of 2013, joined with Sarkozy to craft the euro area's crisis response over the past year and backed him for re-election. She insisted on the need for austerity yesterday, saying Europe's "credibility" depends on reducing deficits and debt.

"We're not saying that saving solves all problems," she told a conference in Berlin. Still, "you can't spend more than you take in. You can't live your whole life this way. Everybody knows this."

The euro strengthened for a second day against the dollar and yen, rising 0.1 percent to $1.3207 at 6:25 p.m. in Paris. The risk premium for 10-year French bonds over German bunds of similar maturity declined for a second day after reaching the highest level since January on April 23.

Merkel may cede ground to austerity critics if the Social Democrats, the main German opposition party, increase their support in May's state elections as polls suggest, said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London.

'Last Bastion'

If Hollande becomes French president and Merkel switches allies to govern with the Social Democrats after the German election in 2013, that "may further help to make views converge," he said in an e-mail. "The last bastion of austerity could remain the Bundesbank."

Hollande has said he'll seek to add growth and investment measures to the fiscal treaty signed by Merkel, Sarkozy and 23 other EU leaders on March 2.

If he's elected, his first visit will be to meet Merkel, so he can bring her "French people's vote for another Europe," Hollande said last night.

Merkel "is pretty resistant to pressure," Altmaier said. France's presidential vote and the Dutch government's collapse don't change the fact that "there's no money in Europe, only deficits everywhere you look. Knowing the chancellor, she will await the outcome in France and then we'll try to come to an understanding with the new government, whoever leads it."

Spain, Greece

Europe's front against austerity has expanded in recent weeks after Spain struggled to meet EU-imposed deficit targets, election campaigns in Greece faced anti-austerity rumblings and the revolt against extra spending cuts in the Netherlands, a traditional German ally, pushed Rutte's coalition toward an early breakup. The Netherlands is one of four remaining AAA states in the euro area.

For all the turbulence, "nothing has happened in recent weeks that would raise questions" about the need for area countries to overhaul their economies and cut debt, German Deputy Finance Minister Hartmut Koschyk said in an interview.

No financial backstop is big enough to arrest the debt crisis and hold down borrowing costs on its own, he said. "It doesn't matter," he said yesterday. "It is no substitute for structural reforms" because "the readiness of markets to tolerate out-of-control public debt has vanished."

Holland also said that he'd like the European Stability Mechanism to be backed by the ECB in order to increase its lending capacity.

"I'd like the ESM to have a link with the ECB so it can have the necessary firepower," he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Helene Fouquet in Paris at hfouquet1@bloomberg.net ; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net

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Saturday, April 21, 2012

(BN) Sarkozy-Hollande Runoff Shaping Up in Fight on Finances


Maybe soon it is better to be a pauper than a millionaire in France

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy heads South and his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande goes East on the last day of campaigning before the first round of voting, courting supporters of other candidates whose backing they need in the runoff.

Hollande and Sarkozy are almost certain to top the 10- person field April 22, putting them into the May 6 decider. Hollande will be in the Ardennes region today, while Sarkozy holds a rally in Nice on the Mediterranean tonight. No campaigning is permitted tomorrow or on election day.

"It's a foregone conclusion who will be in the second round," said William Keylor, a professor of modern French history at Boston University, said in a telephone interview. "Now begins the not-always easy task of maintaining the base and appealing to the center."

With the highest joblessness in 12 years and an economy barely growing, Sarkozy has trailed Hollande in every poll in a head-to-head match over the past 11 months. Hollande promises more spending and higher taxes, saying Sarkozy's tax cuts worsened France's finances and failed to create jobs. Sarkozy claims credit for spending cuts and a retirement-age increase that he says warded off the worst of the euro debt-crisis turmoil.

The winner faces commitments to the European Union to reduce debt and deficits. Government debt will exceed 90 percent of gross domestic product next year, the International Monetary Fund estimates. The IMF sees a deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP next year -- while Sarkozy has promised to reach the EU limit of 3 percent -- and growth of 1 percent.

Debt, Deficit

"Post the election, Hollande probably moves toward the center," Stephane Deo, the chief European economist for UBS Securities in London, said in a note to investors April 17. "Whoever wins is going to have to start talking honestly about how to tackle the deficits and debt levels."

The final polls before the vote showed Hollande, 57, with a lead in a head-to-head match of between seven and 14 points over the incumbent, who is finishing his first five-year term.

A CSA survey completed yesterday showed Hollande will win 28 percent in the first round and Sarkozy 25 percent. That puts Sarkozy, 57, at risk of becoming the first incumbent not to win the first round. Ifop-Fiducial's last tracking poll had Sarkozy up 28-26. Neither published a margin of error.

Top Five

CSA had the National Front's Marine Le Pen at 16 percent, anti-capitalist Jean-Luc Melenchon at 14.5 percent, and self- styled centrist Francois Bayrou at 10.5 percent. Five others would split the rest.

The scores of Hollande and Sarkozy have varied only a few points in the past month. "There's been a remarkable stability throughout the campaign," said Jean-Daniel Levy, director of opinion research at Harris Interactive in France. "Sarkozy has made several efforts to shake things up, but we haven't seen it generate any momentum."

A CSA Institute survey also released April 18 showed that only 27 percent think that Sarkozy will triumph in the runoff.

"The real key of the first round is not who crosses the finish line first but the overall balance between votes for the right and the left," Gael Sliman, director of BVA, said in e- mailed comments. "From this point of view, the Socialist candidate should have important reserves for the second round."

The first-round leader has won five of France's eight direct presidential elections, dating back to 1965.

Second-Round Reserves

Hollande leads Sarkozy in what the French call "reserves," or likely support from among the also-rans.

While 85 percent of Melenchon voters will vote for Hollande in the second round, only 54 percent of Le Pen's supporters are sure to go for Sarkozy, according to a BVA poll April 17. Bayrou's support splits 39 percent for Hollande and 25 percent for Sarkozy. The rest were undecided.

Hollande, who was party leader from 1997 to 2008 and represents a rural district in the parliament, would be the first Socialist president since Francois Mitterrand in 1995. He has never held a minister's post.

He has proposed a 75 percent tax on the wealthiest, an increase in the minimum wage, renegotiating European treaties on deficit limits to promote growth, and banning leveraged buyouts.

Sarkozy has stressed personal responsibility, security, and national identity to chip away at support for the National Front. He has sought centrists by saying speculators will attack French bonds should Hollande be elected. While Standard & Poor's cut France from AAA this year, the country's debt has kept the top grade from other credit-rating firms.

'Political Rhetoric'

"It is particularly difficult to know from either Hollande or Sarkozy what are political rhetoric and electioneering and what are true commitments," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.

A Sarkozy ouster would follow those by leaders in Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain, Slovenia and Slovakia since the debt crisis began, and make him the second French president after Valery Giscard D'Estaing in 1981 to lose a re-election bid. Sarkozy's 36 percent approval rating in an April 15 Ifop poll is the lowest for any post-World War II French president.

In the final days of campaigning, both Hollande and Sarkozy have backed a more activist European Central Bank. That risks tensions with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The comments by Sarkozy also broke a pledge by Sarkozy and Merkel last November not to publicly comment about the ECB.

Converging Views

"The candidates' views on European matters have converged over the past few weeks," Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London, wrote in an e-emailed comment. "We think fears of a Franco-German rift are overdone. The solid Franco-German relationship goes beyond party politics."

While about 70 of voters have told pollsters they are sure of their choice, that doesn't mean the campaign has thrilled them. As many as a quarter of registered voters may not vote, said a BVA poll April 6, which would be the second-highest abstention rate in a French presidential election.

"With high unemployment and France's loss of its triple-A rating, Sarkozy doesn't have much of a record to run on," Boston's Keylor said. "But Hollande has never even held a ministerial position. He doesn't have much charisma. For many voters, it's a question of the lesser of two evils."

To contact the reporter on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at gviscusi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net

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Thursday, April 19, 2012

(BN) French Credit Risk at Three-Month High

Wonderful Hollande, and where do you propose the money comes from? Your mouth?

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- French credit risk is at the highest in three months on concern anti-business policies will be adopted after the presidential election as Europe's debt crisis deepens.

Credit-default swaps on Credit Agricole SA, the nation's third-largest lender, were the worst-performing among European financial companies yesterday while France Telecom SA led an increase in corporate default risk. The cost of insuring the nation's sovereign debt is at the highest in three months ahead of the first round of voting on April 22.

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, who had a 16 point lead against rival President Nicolas Sarkozy in a CSA poll yesterday, has called finance his "biggest adversary". Hollande pledged to increase corporate and bank taxes, introduce a 75 percent levy on earnings of more than 1 million euros ($1.3 million) and cut the retirement age to 60 from 62.

"Some of Hollande's proposals are potentially significant head winds for French banks and companies," said Roger Francis, an analyst at Mizuho International Plc in London. "It's a recipe of tighter regulation and increased taxes which makes for a less business-friendly environment."

Credit-default swaps on BNP Paribas SA, the nation's largest lender, jumped 20 basis points this week to 257.5 and Societe Generale SA, the second biggest, climbed 19 to 333.5, both the highest in three months. Credit Agricole rose 30 this week to a four-month high of 321 while France Telecom increased 9 basis points to 134. Swaps on French government debt cost 200 basis points.

Democracy 'Betrayal'

Hollande is campaigning for a more activist European Central Bank and a revision of the European Union's fiscal compact which he has called a "betrayal of French sovereignty and democracy." That puts him at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel who has campaigned for Sarkozy, struggling against public dissatisfaction with unemployment at a 12-year high.

Hollande says he will eliminate the nation's budget deficit by 2017, a year later than Sarkozy's plan. The gap was 5.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 and will narrow to 4.4 percent in 2012, Finance Minister Francois Baroin said April 17.

"A Socialist administration is likely to be less corporate-friendly than the current one," Andrew Garthwaite, a global equity strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in London, said in a note to investors. "We are concerned by Hollande's talk about wanting to renegotiate the fiscal compact, his suggestions that he might try to change the mandate of the ECB as well as his lack of personal chemistry with Angela Merkel."

Corporate Tax

The Socialist has pledged to introduce a variable corporate tax rate, which would rise to 35 percent from 33 percent for large companies, and an additional 15 percent tax on bank profits, Garthwaite said in the note.

The cost of insuring debt of Electricite de France SA climbed 10 basis points this week to 134, while Cie de St. Gobain, Europe's biggest supplier of building materials, is 15 higher at 155.

A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting 10 million euros of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year. Swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

"The main risk is that he will not try to reduce the deficit," Alessandro Giansanti, a senior rates strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam, said of Hollande. "He is more likely to introduce measures to promote growth. You can expect credit risk will continue to rise."

To contact the reporters on this story: Katie Linsell in London at klinsell@bloomberg.net ; Abigail Moses in London at Amoses5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Armstrong at Parmstrong10@bloomberg.net

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(BN) North Korea Rocket Fails in Setback for New Leader Kim



looks like his western education didn't do him much good.


April 13 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea's long-range rocket failed minutes after liftoff in the biggest setback to Kim Jong Un since he succeeded his father as head of the totalitarian state four months ago.

Scientists are investigating what went wrong, North Korea's state media said. The missile reached an altitude of 151 kilometers (93 miles) before disintegrating into 20 pieces and falling into the ocean 100 to 150 kilometers off the western coast, South Korean Major General Shin Won Sik said at a press conference in Seoul. Asian stocks and the won rose.

The botched firing may put pressure on the new leader to demonstrate his military power by conducting a nuclear test, and General Shin said South Korea is on alert for the possibility. The launch also complicates U.S.-led efforts to engage North Korea after Kim took over control of the reclusive state following Kim Jong Il's death in December.

"Kim Jong Un has lost an enormous amount of face," said Brian Myers, a professor of international studies at Dongseo University in Busan, South Korea. "This makes an underground nuclear test virtually a certainty."

Chances are "very high" that Kim's regime will fire more long-range missiles, conduct a nuclear test, or carry out some other provocation to garner domestic support, South Korean Deputy Defense Minister Lim Kwan Bin said in parliament today.

The rocket "failed to enter its preset orbit" after liftoff from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, state-run Korean Central News Agency said. "Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure."

Long-Range Missiles

It was the fourth time the country has fired a long-range rocket. The last time was in April 2009, when a Taepondong-2 missile flew 3,800 to 4,000 kilometers before disintegrating, according to Baek Seung Joo, a North Korea specialist at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9 percent, while the won rose 0.5 percent to 1,135 per dollar.

The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency session later today, according to a diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said the launch "threatens regional security, violates international law and contravenes its own recent commitments," and an Obama administration official said the U.S. will halt planned shipments of thousands of tons in food aid in response.

Japan joined the U.S. and South Korea in denouncing today's act. Kim's regime has said the projectile would carry a satellite into orbit to mark the April 15 centennial of state founder Kim Il Sung.

'Pyongyang's Seriousness'

While the government in Pyongyang insisted it was not a long-range missile test in violation of a February agreement to end nuclear and long-range missile tests in exchange for 240,000 tons of U.S. food, Obama administration officials had warned otherwise.

"We urge the North Korean leadership to honor its agreements and refrain from a pursuing a cycle of provocation," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday in Washington after a Group of Eight foreign ministers' meeting. "It can pursue peace and reap the benefits of closer ties with the international community, including the United States, or it can continue to face pressure and isolation."

Kim Jong Un was named head of North Korea's sole political party April 11 in a display of his hereditary grip on power. His late father was named "eternal secretary general" of the Workers' Party, the Korean Central News Agency said.

'Blackmail Diplomacy'

"They want to show the world that they are capable of developing a long-range ballistic missile," said Andrei Lankov, an associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul. "It has not happened. So this will decrease the efficiency of their blackmail diplomacy."

A South Korean intelligence report warned that North Korea may follow the rocket launch with the detonation of an atomic device. Recent activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear testing site is consistent with preparations for previous detonations in 2006 and 2009, according to the intelligence report obtained April 9 by Bloomberg News.

"I'm not surprised the North Koreans launched and I'm not surprised it failed," said James Acton, a senior associate in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "I will also not be surprised if, in the next few months, they test a nuclear weapon."

North's Economy

The North's economy contracted 0.5 percent to 30 trillion won ($26.3 billion) in 2010, compared with South Korea's 1,173 trillion won, according to the South's central bank. North Korea had a food shortfall of as much as 700,000 metric tons of food last year, according to the UN, and is dependent on aid from China, its only ally.

China today called on all parties to not do anything that harms the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in statement on the ministry's website.

The test involved a Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite mounted on an Unha-3 carrier rocket, according to North Korea. The firing took place on the second day of the window between April 12 and 16 that the North had specified in its filing with international agencies.

Kwangmyongsong means "bright star," a word North Koreans have used to describe late leader Kim Jong Il. "Unha" means galaxy.

The UN Security Council banned North Korea from using any missile technology in 2009 shortly after the North fired a long- range missile carrying what it said was a communications satellite that failed to enter orbit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sangwon Yoon in Seoul at syoon32@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net

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Friday, April 13, 2012

(BN) JPMorgan Said to Transform Treasury to Prop Trading

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April 13 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon has transformed the bank's chief investment office in the past five years, increasing the size and risk of its speculative bets, according to five former executives with direct knowledge of the changes.

Achilles Macris, hired in 2006 as the CIO's top executive in London, led an expansion into corporate and mortgage-debt investments with a mandate to generate profits for the New York- based bank, three of the former employees said. Dimon, 56, closely supervised the shift from the CIO's previous focus on protecting JPMorgan from risks inherent in its banking business, such as interest-rate and currency movements, they said.

Some of Macris's bets are now so large that JPMorgan probably can't unwind them without losing money or roiling financial markets, the former executives said, based on knowledge gleaned from people inside the bank and dealers at other firms. Bruno Iksil, a London-based trader in Macris's group, gained attention last week after moving markets with his trades, drawing a comparison to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's power in the government-bond market.

"What Bernanke is to the Treasury market, Iksil is to the derivatives market," Bonnie Baha, head of the global developed credit group at DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, where she helps oversee $32 billion, said in a telephone interview.

Macris's team amassed a portfolio of as much as $200 billion, booking a profit of $5 billion in 2010 alone -- equal to more than a quarter of JPMorgan's net income that year, one former senior executive said.

Lines Blurred

The shifting role of the CIO group at JPMorgan, which reported record firmwide profit for 2011, underscores how blurry the line can be between "proprietary trading" and hedging, and it highlights the challenge U.S. regulators face in curbing speculative bets by federally backed lenders under the so-called Volcker rule. JPMorgan, whose $2.27 trillion of assets at year- end made it the biggest U.S. bank, says the CIO manages the firm's risks, with trades like Iksil's forming a part of that effort.

The CIO is "focused on managing the long-term structural assets and liabilities of the firm and is not focused on short- term profits," Joe Evangelisti, a spokesman for the bank in New York, said on April 5. He didn't elaborate when asked to comment on the changes described by former employees.

The CIO's growing size and market power have made it an increasingly important customer to Wall Street's trading desks and a market influence watched by hedge funds and other investors, the former employees said. Iksil's positions in credit-derivatives have become so large that some market participants dubbed him "Voldemort," after the villain of the Harry Potter series who's so powerful he can't be called by name.

May Keep Bets

Yet it's Macris, not Iksil, who was behind the strategy that led to an unprecedented build-up of credit risk in JPMorgan's chief investment office, three former employees of the bank said. While they expressed doubt Iksil can unwind his positions without causing a dislocation in the markets he trades, they also said JPMorgan probably can afford to hold the assets until they mature and so won't be forced to sell them.

London-based Macris, 50, didn't reply to a call seeking comment. He, Iksil and JPMorgan haven't been accused of any wrongdoing.

JPMorgan, which reports first-quarter earnings today, doesn't break out revenue or profit for its chief investment office. The bank lumps the office into a "corporate" line item that also includes treasury and the firm's centrally managed divisions such as audit, finance and human resources.

Surge in Holdings

In 2011, corporate revenue of $3.3 billion included $1.6 billion of securities gains and produced $411 million of net income, the bank said in an annual filing on Feb. 29. By comparison, JPMorgan's investment bank reported $26.3 billion in revenue and $6.8 billion of net income in 2011.

Since 2007, the value of securities held in JPMorgan's chief investment office and treasury has more than tripled to surpass $350 billion from $76.5 billion, according to company filings. The biggest jump was in 2009, when the company disclosed that the CIO made "significant purchases" of government-backed mortgage securities, asset-backed securities, corporate securities, as well as U.S. Treasury and government- agency securities, according to the filings.

"These investments were generally associated with the chief investment office's management of interest-rate risk and investment of cash resulting from the excess funding the firm continued to experience during 2009," according to the company's 10-K report for 2009, filed in February of 2010.

Management Changes

Profit, not risk management, guided the purchases, according to the former employees. One of the employees, who previously held a senior executive position at the bank, said Dimon even ordered some of the trades himself.

The transformation of the CIO has its origins in Dimon's arrival at JPMorgan with the purchase in July 2004 of Bank One Corp., where he was CEO. Less than three months later, Dimon's long-time lieutenant Michael Cavanagh became chief financial officer. He replaced Dina Dublon, a 23-year veteran of JPMorgan and its predecessors.

At the time, JPMorgan also said Ina Drew, who ran global treasury at JPMorgan prior to the acquisition, would report directly to Dimon. Drew's title changed in February 2005 to "chief investment officer," according to the 2005 year-end filing.

Missile in Flight

Dimon pushed the unit to seek bigger profits by buying higher-yielding assets, including structured credit, equities and derivatives, and ramping up speculation, according to two former employees. While Drew's unit previously had small teams of traders who took speculative "macro" positions in currencies and interest-rate products, people who worked there at the time say the focus shifted and traders were given permission to put more capital at risk.

In London, Macris expanded his team, adding expertise in credit and fixed-income trading. A Greek citizen, Macris previously was co-head of capital markets at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein before joining JPMorgan in 2006. In that role he helped oversee a unit that made proprietary trades, or bets with Dresdner's own money, according to two people who worked with him at the time.

One former colleague at Dresdner said he remembers visiting Macris's London apartment in 2004 for a gathering of fellow colleagues from the firm. He said he was struck by a picture on the wall in a room that contained more than six trading screens. The picture, which he estimated was more than six-feet high and six-feet wide, was of a missile in flight.

'Off-the-Wall Ideas'

Before joining Dresdner, Macris oversaw currency trading at Bankers Trust, now part of Deutsche Bank AG. Macris was an idea- generating machine who was blunt and didn't suffer fools, said Duncan Hennes, who worked with him at Bankers Trust.

"He always had off-the-wall ideas, but in hindsight sort of smart ideas," Hennes said in a telephone interview. "He was always thinking out of the box."

David Sandelovsky, who reported to Macris at Bankers Trust in the 1990s, remembers being impressed with his "great knowledge" of art, wine, politics and history. He was an active trader -- "a big hitter" -- as well as a manager, Sandelovsky said.

"It wasn't just a simple 'Let's go long the dollar against the yen,'" Sandelovsky said. "He had serious ideas, and they were macro, involving interest rates, foreign exchange. He didn't think in simplistic terms."

'London Whale'

At JPMorgan, Macris hired Evan Kalimtgis, a former head of credit portfolio strategy at Dresdner, to help with risk management, according to one former employee.

In 2007 Javier Martin-Artajo, who had been Dresdner's head of credit-derivatives trading, joined JPMorgan in London. George Polychronopoulos, who worked at hedge fund Endeavour Capital LLP, also joined the London office in 2009.

Martin-Artajo, Polychronopoulos and Kalimtgis didn't return calls and e-mails seeking comment.

Iksil, whose credit-derivatives trades have earned him the moniker "London Whale," joined JPMorgan in 2005 and has held his current role since 2007, according to his career-history record with the U.K. Financial Services Authority. He worked at the French investment bank Natixis from 1999 to 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While Macris had a mandate to make money from the beginning, he didn't start putting on big bets until after the credit crisis in 2008. Two of the former executives said the following year he bought AAA-rated pieces of collateralized debt obligations. As competitors dumped securities and prices slumped, Macris's group at JPMorgan emerged as the biggest buyer in some markets, said one former executive at the bank who was familiar with the trades at the times.

Trading Risk

In one example, a New York-based CIO trader named Jonathan Horowitz bought about $1.1 billion of AAA-rated portions of collateralized loan obligations for about 80 cents on the dollar in November and December 2008, people familiar with the matter said at the time. Horowitz declined to comment.

One public sign that the chief investment office does more than hedge: Its trading risk is on par with that of JPMorgan's investment bank.

JPMorgan's annual report for 2011 shows that the CIO stood to lose as much as $57 million on most days of the year. That compares with $58 million for the investment bank, which includes Wall Street's biggest stock- and bond-trading units.

'Extraordinary Platform'

Another sign: The relationship between the CIO and the investment bank's sales and trading desks is strained, two former employees said. Employees in the CIO get a smaller share of their trading profits than those in the investment bank, giving Dimon a cost-management incentive to direct more trading through the CIO, one former executive said.

Last year Drew, 55, hired Irene Tse, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, to oversee the CIO in North America. Tse more recently was a portfolio manager for Stanley Druckenmiller's hedge fund Duquesne Capital Management.

JPMorgan "offers an extraordinary platform for me and the entire CIO group to invest and manage risk," Tse said in the January 2011, press release announcing her appointment.

Drew and Tse didn't reply to e-mails and phone calls seeking comment.

JPMorgan, like rivals, has shut groups in the investment bank that specialized in speculative bets with the company's own money, anticipating implementation of the Volcker rule. The ban, part of the Dodd-Frank financial-reform law, will prohibit banks backed by the federal government from engaging in so-called proprietary trading. One former JPMorgan employee said the number of risk-taking traders in the chief risk office has been reduced in recent months.

To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Schatzker in New York at eschatzker@bloomberg.net ; Mary Childs in New York at mchilds5@bloomberg.net ; Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net .

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net ; Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net .

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Sunday, April 8, 2012

(BN) World’s Richest Lose $9 Billion as Global Markets Decline


to the billionaires, they are laughing their guts out at these people in forbes and bloomberg trying to assess their net worth on a weekly basis.

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- The 20 wealthiest people on Earth lost a combined $9.1 billion this week as renewed concerns that Europe's debt crisis might worsen drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its largest decline of 2012.

Mexican Carlos Slim's fortune fell by $1.5 billion during the week as shares of his telecom operator, America Movil SAB, dropped 2.2 percent through April 4. Mexican markets were closed yesterday for the Holy Thursday holiday. The 72-year-old remains the richest person in the world, with a net worth of $69.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

"This is a little bit of a reality check," Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer for New York-based BNY Mellon Wealth Management, said in a telephone interview. "The super wealthy are among the most cautious investors in the world. Skepticism is still high, and they are feeling very, very nervous."

Global markets retreated this week as demand fell at a Spanish bond auction and minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting indicated that it isn't ready to provide more monetary stimulus. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.7 percent, to 1398.08, its third weekly decline of 2012. The STOXX Europe 600 lost 1.6 percent to close at 259.07.

Li Ka-Shing, Asia's second-richest person, lost $144 million during the week. Shares of his port operator, Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., dropped 1.1 percent in yesterday's Hong Kong trading, leading the Hang Seng Index to its fifth decline in six days. Li, 83, ranks 15th on the index with a $23.8 billion fortune.

Batista, Ortega

Brazilian Eike Batista's net worth fell $574.4 million this week as shares of OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA dropped 3 percent during the week. On April 4, International Business Machines Corp., the world's largest computer-services provider, bought a 20 percent stake in Batista's technology unit, SIX Automacao. The two companies will set up a technology center to serve customers in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

Batista, whose fortune rose $7.2 billion last week after the 55-year-old sold a 5.6 percent stake in his commodities empire, ranks 10th on the index. His net worth of $33.5 billion is up 49 percent year to date.

Spanish retail tycoon Amancio Ortega, 76, saw his fortune fall $1.2 billion to $39.4 billion as shares of his Industria de Diseno Textil SA, owner of the Zara fashion chain, lost 0.3 percent in Madrid trading during the week. Spain's Ibex stock index slid to a seven-month low in intraday trading yesterday amid concerns that the country may require international aid to meet deficit targets.

World's Three Richest

Stefan Persson, 64, chairman of Swedish clothing giant Hennes & Mauritz AB, fell four spots to rank 17th on the Bloomberg index as his fortune fell $1.4 billion to $23.2 billion. H&M shares declined by 3.8 percent during the four-day week shortened by the Good Friday holiday.

Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates, 56, is second on the index with a net worth of $63.2 billion, down $558.1 million for the week. Warren Buffett, 81, is third with $45.2 billion. The world's three richest people have gained a combined $17.2 billion year to date.

To contact the reporter on this story: Devon Pendleton in New York at dpendleton@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Matthew G. Miller at mmiller144@bloomberg.net

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Friday, March 16, 2012

(BN) Buffett Awards Wall Street-Sized Pay, Praised by Dimon

Sure you need money to keep talent. But why do you need to say it out loud?



Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Buffett Awards Wall Street-Sized Pay Praised by Dimon

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett, who has said banker greed helped deepen the U.S. financial crisis, attracts the workers he wants with compensation that competes with Wall Street awards.

Berkshire gave $17.4 million in 2011 compensation to Thomas P. Nerney, CEO of its United States Liability Insurance Group; $12.4 million to Geico Corp. CEO Tony Nicely and the National Indemnity Co. unit gave $9.26 million to Ajit Jain, according to filings to state regulators. Berkshire, which is set to send its annual-meeting notice to shareholders today, said in last year's proxy that Buffett's salary remains $100,000 at his request.

Buffett, whose office in Omaha, Nebraska, is more than 1,000 miles from New York's financial center, endeared himself to bank critics last year by decrying income inequality and calling for higher taxes on the wealthy. Still, his pay practices won praise from JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, who said last month he would bet the top 20 or 30 people at Berkshire make more than the biggest earners at his bank.

"Whether it's Warren Buffett or Jamie Dimon, they all pay a lot," said Charles Elson, director of the University of Delaware's Center for Corporate Governance. "Pay is out of control everywhere."

Berkshire Class A shares declined 4.7 percent in New York last year as JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, slid 22 percent. Both companies underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which ended 2011 little changed.

Think Like Owners

Buffett, whose Berkshire stock is valued at more than $40 billion, has said he gives bonuses to encourage managers to think less like employees and more like owners. He told shareholders last year he once offered to pay David Sokol a bonus of $50 million if performance targets were met. Sokol left Berkshire in April.

"We've paid out very large bonuses at Berkshire in the past, but we've always paid them out for performance," Buffett, 81, said in a January 2010 interview. "I love getting talented people doing great things for us, and I'll pay them accordingly."

Berkshire's statements to state regulators show that more than 20 managers at insurance units earned at least $1 million last year. Gregory Abel, CEO of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., made $9.9 million for 2011, according to the unit's annual report. Berkshire's filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission show that no executive officer at the parent company has reached $1 million in at least a decade through 2010.

Dimon's Defense

Dimon, who got $20.8 million in 2010 compensation, has defended banker pay from criticism by lawmakers and journalists. "You don't even make money!" Dimon said to reporters at JPMorgan's Feb. 28 investor presentation. JPMorgan paid the 25,999 employees at its investment bank an average of $341,552 last year, or about 34 percent of the unit's revenue.

"Warren Buffett does an exceptional job," Dimon, 56, said at the meeting. "I'll make you a bet he pays his top 20 or 30 people more than we do. We need top talent. You cannot run these businesses with second-rate talent."

Dimon had no specific knowledge of Berkshire's compensation packages, said JPMorgan spokesman Joe Evangelisti, who declined to give details on his bank's top earners. Buffett didn't respond to a request for comment e-mailed to an assistant.

Nerney's compensation declined 11 percent from 2010, while Nicely's rose 7.7 percent and Jain's advanced 6.1 percent at National Indemnity. Underwriting profit at Geico, which Nicely has led for 18 years, fell 48 percent to $576 million last year, while revenue rose 7.6 percent to $15.4 billion. The 2011 underwriting loss at Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, which Jain runs, was $714 million.

Adding Value

Buffett uses the premium revenue collected by insurance units to help fund the stock picks and takeovers that have made Berkshire into a $200 billion provider of energy, consumer goods and luxury flights. Jain, 60, has "added a great many billions of dollars" to Berkshire's value since starting his operation in 1985, Buffett said in this year's annual letter.

Nerney's unit, with a staff of 591, is part of Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group, a collection of carriers that cover risks from medical malpractice to boating accidents. Nerney, whose unit is based in Wayne, Pennsylvania, writes so-called excess and surplus policies, which typically cover risks that aren't addressed in the traditional insurance market.

"It sounds very easy to do, but I assure you it's not," Joseph Calandro, managing director at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in New York, said in an interview. "A good excess and surplus lines underwriter is as rare as a good investor and generally just as profitable." Calandro previously worked at an excess and surplus subsidiary of Berkshire's General Re.

Buffett's Own Compensation

Buffett has taken a $100,000 salary for more than a quarter century, while accepting additional compensation from Berkshire in the form of security services valued at about $350,000 in 2010. His chief financial officer, Marc Hamburg, was the top earning executive officer at the parent company in 2010 with compensation of $924,750. JPMorgan CFO Douglas Braunstein was awarded $16.1 million in 2010, while the investment banking chief, Jes Staley, had $13.6 million, an SEC filing shows.

Buffett has praised Dimon's leadership and said he is a shareholder of New York-based JPMorgan. Berkshire holds more than $12 billion of stock in JPMorgan's rival Wells Fargo & Co., and Buffett's company made a $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. at the depths of the 2008 crisis. Goldman Sachs reported about $14 million in 2010 compensation for both CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Gary Cohn, the chief operating officer, down from more than $40 million for each for 2008.

New Regulations

Buffett, a supporter of President Barack Obama, has called for a "policeman" to oversee banking conduct and challenged Republicans in Congress to address the widening gap between the "ultra rich" and other Americans.

"There are lot of people who would like nothing better than to take Warren down a peg or two on this particular issue," Jay Lorsch, a corporate-governance professor at Harvard Business School in Boston, said in an interview. "Here's the poster child, the guy who is arguing for parity in pay and reducing executive pay."

Obama blamed lenders in his January State of the Union address for the 2008 credit freeze, saying their wrong-way bets "left innocent, hard-working Americans holding the bag." Lobby groups representing financial firms including JPMorgan and Bank of America Corp. fought against the creation of Obama's new watchdog, the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection bureau, as an independent agency, saying it would create needless bureaucracy.

Dimon, who was once dubbed Obama's "favorite banker" by the New York Times, publicly questioned Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in June on financial regulatory costs. Net income at JPMorgan rose 9.2 percent to $19 billion last year.

"Jamie's irritated understandably by some of this stuff," said James Armstrong, president of Berkshire investor Henry H. Armstrong Associates. "But I don't think Berkshire is saying one thing and doing another" with compensation, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net Jeff Green in Detroit at jgreen16@bloomberg.net .

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net

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Thursday, March 15, 2012

(BN) Russian Billionaire Rybolovlev Sued by Wife Over Penthouse Buy


Her goal is vengeance. But she knows nothing she does will ever make him come back.

His goal is evasion. But he knows she is a hunter whose sole purpose left is to destroy him.

Money can't buy everything but it can buy this.

Bloomberg News, sent from my Android phone

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev's wife sued him over the $88 million purchase of a Central Park West penthouse in Manhattan from former Citigroup Inc. Chairman Sanford Weill.

Elena Rybolovleva, 45, of Geneva, who is seeking a divorce, yesterday sued her 45-year-old husband in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan. She accused him of fraudulently transferring property acquired during his marriage in violation of a Swiss court order to buy the New York penthouse "with the specific intent of hiding and diverting his personal interest in the property."

A company associated with the billionaire's daughter, Ekaterina Rybolovleva, signed a contract to purchase the 6,744- square-foot (627-square-meter), full-floor condominium at 15 Central Park West, Alan Basiev, a spokesman for Rybolovlev, said in December. The purchase closed Feb. 15, according to the complaint.

Ekaterina Rybolovleva, who is studying at a U.S. university, plans to stay at the apartment when visiting New York, Basiev said. Her father, ranked number 100 on Forbes Magazine's 2012 list of the world's billionaires with a net worth of $9 billion, is the former owner of fertilizer maker OAO Uralkali.

Divorce Filing

Elena Rybolovleva filed for divorce in Geneva in December 2008, and the court later imposed a provisional freeze on shares and assets of Rybolovlev, including stakes in Russian potash producers OAO Uralkali and OAO Silvinit, according to the complaint. The pair married in July 1987 and lived in Geneva starting in 1995.

His wife is asking the court to establish a trust over the property so that it "cannot be alienated, conveyed, encumbered, transferred or wasted" pending the final determination of the Swiss court.

Basiev and Rybolovlev couldn't immediately be reached for comment after regular business hours yesterday in Russia.

Marc I. Salis, a New York-based lawyer who represented the penthouse's buyer, didn't immediately return a phone call seeking comment on the lawsuit.

The condo was listed for $88 million. The prior record for a Manhattan residence was the $53 million sale of a townhouse to private-equity investor J. Christopher Flowers in 2006, according to Jonathan Miller, president of New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc.

Potash Producer

The condominium was listed for sale by brokerage Brown Harris Stevens in November. Weill and his wife, Joan, paid $43.7 million for the property in 2007, according to city records. The apartment has a wraparound terrace, two wood-burning fireplaces and a library, according to a floor plan on Brown Harris's website.

Rybolovlev sold 53 percent of OAO Uralkali in June 2010 to billionaire Suleiman Kerimov and his partners, who also took control over rival OAO Silvinit as part of a plan to create the world's largest potash producer.

Rybolovlev, who lives in Monaco, liquidated his interests in Uralkali and Silvinit and used part of the proceeds to acquire the penthouse, according to the suit.

"During the marriage, and during the pendency of the divorce proceedings and this time in violation of the Swiss court order, defendant Dmitri Rybolovlev used property acquired during the marriage to purchase a multitude of new assets, using for this purpose vehicles such as trusts and limited liability companies to place them beyond the reach of plaintiff Elena Rybolovleva," according to the lawsuit.

Student Housing

Rybolovlev and his daughter planned the purchase of the penthouse since 2008 despite his assertion that it is student housing for her, and she doesn't attend school in New York, according to the lawsuit.

Rybolovleva has also sued her husband in Florida over a house he purchased from Donald Trump in Palm Beach for $95 million, which at the time was the most expensive house in the U.S., according to that lawsuit.

The case is Rybolovleva v. Rybolovlev, 102168/2012, New York State Supreme Court (Manhattan).

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Dolmetsch in New York at cdolmetsch@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Hytha at mhytha@bloomberg.net

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(BN) Chinese Data Show Economy Already in ‘Hard Landing,’ JPMorgan’s Mowat Says


What is Mowat taking to be hallucinating like this?


Bloomberg News, sent from my iPad.

Chinese Economy Already in 'Hard Landing,' JPMorgan Says

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy is already in a so- called "hard landing," according to Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist.

"If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing," Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. "China is in a hard landing. Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It's not a debate anymore, it's a fact."

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since Nov. 30, after Premier Wen Jiabao said home prices are still far from reasonable levels. His comments fueled concerns the government will maintain restrictions on the property market for an extended period even as the curbs threaten to slow economic growth.

Wen announced at the beginning of a national lawmakers' congress on March 5 an economic growth target of 7.5 percent for this year, down from 8 percent over the past seven years. Data last week showed China's factory output in the first two months of the year rose the least since 2009, while retail sales increased less than economists predicted and inflation eased to the slowest pace in 20 months.

Mowat, a runner-up for Asian equity strategy in 2011 according to Institutional Investor magazine, said last May the risk of a hard landing was building in China as fixed-asset investment in real estate had increased even as property demand remained weak. That meant residential inventories will increase and lead to a contraction in construction activity, the strategist said in a May 17 interview.

"One should be concerned about what's happening in the China property market," Mowat said at yesterday's conference. "People are too complacent that the government can turn what's going on in this market."

'Vastly Overblown'

Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a Springfield, New Jersey-based consultancy firm, said on Feb. 2 that China's economy is headed for a "hard landing" this year as weaker demand overseas chokes off exports. Shilling, who correctly forecast the U.S. recession that began in December 2007, defines a hard landing as a growth rate below 6 percent.

Shilling and Mowat's views are in contrast with Yale University Professor Stephen Roach, a former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia, who said on March 8 that concerns China will enter a hard landing are "vastly overblown."

"I don't think the banking system will collapse and the property bubble will burst," Roach said at a conference in Shanghai. "These are all exaggerations."

Home Sales Slump

China is easing restrictions on lending capacity at three of the nation's four biggest banks after new loans dropped to a four-year low, officials at the banks with knowledge of the matter said. The government's two-year effort to control the property market helped spur a 25 percent drop in home sales in the first two months of the year after surging 26 percent in January and February of 2011.

"What you can look forward to is to see a pickup in property demand that will clear up the inventory; that doesn't appear likely," Mowat said in an interview after the conference. "I don't see any evidence of a policy move that will cause the economy to reaccelerate."

To contact the reporter on this story: Weiyi Lim in Singapore at wlim26@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at dboey@bloomberg.net

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